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Super Bowl 58 NFL Picks: Chiefs Moneyline Odds Are Fantastic Value

After nearly 300 NFL games between the regular season and playoffs, the 2023 campaign ends on Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet in Super Bowl 58 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

This will be the second time in four years that the pair will play in the Super Bowl after the Chiefs won SB LIV thanks to a fourth-quarter comeback for the franchise’s first title in five decades. The 49ers have a shot at redemption in Sin City, but are they worth a bet as favorites, or are the Chiefs as underdogs the best bet on the board?

Super Bowl 58 NFL Picks: Chefs Moneyline Odds Are Fantastic Value

If you are looking for longshots or Super Bowl prop bets, several articles on our homepage cover these topics, such as this one on first and last TD scorers. But you’ve come to the right place if you want a good old-fashioned moneyline pick for the Chiefs vs the 49ers.

Should Chiefs Be Favored?

I’m no oddsmaker, nor do I pretend to know more than them about setting odds for Super Bowl games, but I can’t shake the feeling that the Chiefs are on the wrong side of the moneyline.

From where I sit, the Chiefs have a better quarterback, defense, and coach than their opponents. And I have the stats to back up those statements.

The Chiefs allowed the second-fewest points per game, including the playoffs, with 16.8 PPG allowed. Only Baltimore was better. The 49ers were third, but at 18.4, they allowed nearly two points more per game than the top teams. In their last three games, the Chiefs lowered their number to 13.7 PPG, while the 49ers’ defense imploded during the playoffs and allowed 24.3 points in their last three games.

Regarding coaching, the odds for Super Bowl 58 might not be in his favor, but history is on Andy Reid’s side. When coaches go head to head more than once in Super Bowl, as Reid and Kyle Shanahan are about to do, the coach winning the first game is 3-0 to win the second. Reid also has coached in 11 conference title games and has the experience over his counterpart.

I know I said I have the numbers to back up my arguments, but I have to cede to the fact that Brock Purdy had a phenomenal season on the stat sheet. He finished fifth in the NFL in passing yards, while Patrick Mahomes was sixth. Purdy also passed for four more touchdowns during the regular season and threw three fewer interceptions.

Yeah, maybe Purdy had better stats during the regular season. But you and I both know that doesn’t make him a better quarterback than Mahomes. If you were picking teams during gym class, you’d take Mahomes over Purdy ten times out of ten. Stats don’t lie but don’t always tell the whole story.

Super Bowl 58 Moneyline Prediction

I’ve already made my case for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl in several articles over the last week and a half. I’ve even suggested you move the NFL spread to -2.5 in favor of Kansas City using alternate lines at BetUS Sportsbook. So naturally, I’m siding with the Chiefs on the moneyline to pull off a Super Bowl upset and deny the 49ers revenge for their loss in 2020.



Questions of the Day

What is a good prop bet online for Super Bowl 58?

The Chiefs to win the first quarter or race to 10 points is a good prop bet, considering the 49ers haven’t scored in either of their playoff games’ first quarters.

Is the Over or Under a better NFL bet for Super Bowl Sunday?

With two of the top three defenses in the NFL, I can’t recommend the Under enough. The Under is 4-1 in the last five Super Bowl games, and I expect a defensive clinic to unfold in Vegas.

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