Super Bowl 59 Tight End Prop Picks: Bet Goedert to Outshine Kelce

· Feb 07 - 5 minutes read

Bet Eagles TE Dallas Goedert to have 64+ receiving yards.
Fade Travis Kelce in head-to-head betting vs Goedert (+114).
Make bank with our top Super Bowl 59 picks! Join with our promo code HUDDLE125.

Tight ends may not get the same hype as star wide receivers, but Dallas Goedert and Travis Kelce are expected to be key factors in Super Bowl 59 when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles.

Super Bowl 59 Tight End Props: Bet Goedert to Outshine Kelce — Dallas Goedert #88 of the Philadelphia Eagles | Gus Stark/Getty Images/AFP

Goedert has been Philadelphia’s most consistent postseason weapon, leading the team in catches and targets. Meanwhile, Kelce’s production has dipped, and he could struggle again against an elite Eagles defense against tight ends. Given Kansas City’s struggles covering TEs, Goedert has a great shot at a big night. But can he outgain Kelce on the stat sheet?

Based on the numbers, there’s serious value in NFL betting against the aging Chiefs star. Let’s break it all down with my NFL predictions for Super Bowl tight end props.

2 Top NFL TE Prop Picks for Super Bowl 59

1. Dallas Goedert 64+ Receiving Yards (+120)

Dallas Goedert might not have the flashy name value of A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith, but he’s been the Eagles’ most reliable postseason target. With 18 targets, 15 catches, and a TD in three playoff games, he’s leading all Philadelphia pass-catchers in major categories, Chiefs vs Eagles stats.

And if history tells us anything, Goedert thrives in big moments — he’s hit his receptions prop in nine straight playoff games. Goedert’s Over/Under yardage total for the Super Bowl is set at 53.5 yards in NFL betting lines, but I have confidence in him to do better. So I bet up the total to 64+ yards for the Eagles’ hottest pass catcher.

2024 NFL Tight Ends: Average Yards After Catch (YAC) Leaders

*Minimum 40 Receptions*

1. Tucker Kraft – 9.4
2. George Kittle – 6.9
3. Dalton Kincaid – 6.4
4. Isaiah Likely – 6.3
5. Dallas Goedert – 6.2
6. Jonnu Smith – 6.1
7. Will Dissly – 6.1
8. Kyle Pitts – 6.1
9. Noah Fant -… pic.twitter.com/vwRjtnlIbK

— Justin Bruni (@BestBallBruni) February 3, 2025

Let’s talk matchup because Kansas City is pathetic at covering tight ends. The Chiefs have given up more receiving yards to TEs than any team in the NFL. Goedert just shredded a tough Commanders defense for 85 yards in the NFC Championship Game. Given his 6.8 projected targets and 36.0 air yards per game (88th percentile for TEs), this line feels way too low.

And about that longest reception prop? Goedert has cleared 19.5 yards in all three playoff games. His WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) jumped from 38.4 to 50.2 this season, meaning the Eagles trust him more than ever in high-leverage spots. With perfect dome conditions favoring the pass, Goedert should have no trouble hitting both NFL player prop bets.

PROP PICKS: Dallas Goedert 64+ Receiving Yards (+120) & Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards (-118)

2. Fade Travis Kelce in Head-to-Head vs Dallas Goedert

I tried. I really did. I wanted to find a Kelce prop I liked, but I just couldn’t do it. The guy is on the wrong side of 35, looks slower by the week, and had just four measly TDs combined in the regular season and playoffs. For a force who used to be the best pass-catching TE in football? That’s a red flag.

travis kelce trying to make it to the end zone pic.twitter.com/QBe9b3WyTW

— gabb (@gabbgoudy) January 18, 2025

Goedert is simply better right now. He has outgained Kelce in three matchups in their last five games, averaging 56 yards per game to Kelce’s 55. That’s not a massive difference, but the Super Bowl matchup is where this online bet cashes.

Kansas City allowed more tight end yardage than any team in the NFL this season — 1,191 yards given up to the position. The Eagles? They allowed the fewest at just 591 yards, per NFL betting trends. If you expect Kelce to turn back the clock against the stingiest TE defense in football, good luck.

Let’s not ignore recent production either. Kelce caught just two passes for 19 yards in the AFC Championship, failing to hit 50 in four of his last six games. Even with a Super Bowl on the line, he looks like a guy ready to call it quits after this season.

At plus-money odds, backing Goedert to outgain Kelce in what should be a more favorable matchup is an easy call for this NFL pick.

PICK: Travis Kelce to have fewer receiving yards than Dallas Goedert (+114)

More Super Bowl 59 Prop Picks and Best Bets

Question of the Day

Who has the most catches in a Super Bowl game?

The record for receiving yards in a single Super Bowl game is actually owned by a running back. Former Patriots’ RB James White caught 14 passes from Tom Brady in Super Bowl LI.

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets