Below, I’ve highlighted the three biggest reasons the Chiefs will win Super Bowl 58 as NFL betting underdogs.
Chiefs vs 49ers Game Information
- Game: Chiefs vs 49ers
- Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
- Day/Time: Sunday, Feb 11, 6:30 p.m. ET
- Super Bowl 58 Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
At Allegiant Stadium, the Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58 on Sunday, Feb. 11. The game starts at 6:30 p.m. ET and will air on CBS. The 49ers are -115 favorites on our Super Bowl odds board, while the Chiefs are listed at -105.
Chiefs Have Better QB
The first reason the Chiefs are among your best bets to make on Sunday is the matchup between Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes. If you were a clueless person looking to make a blind wager based on QB stats, you’d be all over the 49ers. Purdy finished the regular season with better stats in almost every pertinent category.
But you’re reading this, so you do your research and know enough to understand that stats don’t always tell the whole story. Let’s put it this way. Who would you pick if you were drafting a team and could choose between Mahomes and Purdy?
Let’s not overlook that Mahomes’ numbers in the postseason have been phenomenal, and he looks more comfortable and confident than Purdy. Mahomes has four TDs, zero interceptions, and two sacks against him in three playoff games. He hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 17, and he’s contributing on the ground with 75 rushing yards in the postseason.
Patrick Mahomes on his running style:
“People think I’m slow. I think it’s kind of deceptive. I think the defense takes bad angles” 😅 pic.twitter.com/ULTtPfSNN5
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) February 7, 2024
Chiefs Have Better Defense
Unlike Mahomes vs Purdy, I have more faith in leaning on the raw data when comparing the Chiefs’ and 49ers’ defenses. I don’t think any reasonable human could argue that the 49ers have a better defense, even if they ranked third in points allowed during the regular season.
KC dominated the passing game on defense, ranked fourth in yards allowed through the air, and finished second in points conceded.
Peter Schrager is spitting 100 percent facts about Chiefs Defense! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/yN375RERVG
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) February 7, 2024
But that was during the regular season. The Chiefs went from second-best to the most dominant defense in the NFL during the run to the Super Bowl. They held two of the best offenses in the NFL to 10 or fewer points in the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens, and they won’t be intimidated by the 49ers high-octane offense.
I must respect the 49ers, as their defense is talented. But they are slowly collapsing during the playoffs and look vulnerable to an offense as excellent and well-oiled as the Chiefs.
When you bet online on a Super Bowl game, you have to consider defense near the top of your list, and the Chiefs are a step above the 49ers.
Chiefs Have Better Coach
Andy Reid, who has 25 career playoff wins, has the edge over Kyle Shanahan in almost every relevant statistic. However, Reid has been coaching much longer, so better stats don’t necessarily mean he’s a better coach.
Andy Reid impersonator asking Andy Reid a question at Super Bowl Opening Night. pic.twitter.com/EB2C0vqxTl
— Arash Markazi (@ArashMarkazi) February 6, 2024
Conversely, experience is invaluable in a must-win situation for an NFL Championship. Reid is, after all, one of just six coaches who hase beaten all 32 teams in the NFL.
Reid is 9-4 against the 49ers in his 20+ years as a coach, including a 44-23 beatdown when these two last met in Week 7 of the 2022 season.
Questions of the Day
What is Andy Reid’s record in the Super Bowl?
As a head coach, Reid has won two Super Bowls in four trips to the big game, one of which came when he was in Philadelphia. Reid also won a Super Bowl as an assistant coach.
Who Leads the Super Bowl MVP Odds?
Mahomes leads the charge at +140 to win MVP of Super Bowl 58, with Brock Purdy (+250) and Christian McCaffrey (+375) rounding out the top three.