Week 13 of the NFL season kicks off with a massive NFC battle. Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks will travel to Dallas to take on Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Both teams are battling for position in the NFC playoff picture. Coming into Week 13, the Cowboys are the top Wild Card team at 8-3, and they are looking to keep pace with the 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East. Meanwhile, the Seahawks hold the second Wild Card position. I’m back to give the best NFL bets for Week 13.
The Cowboys have enjoyed three straight soft matchups. They knocked off the New York Giants in Week 10 by a score of 49-17 and followed that by crushing the Carolina Panthers 33-10. On Thanksgiving Day, they continued to roll when they cruised past the Washington Commanders 45-10. Prescott has been on fire with 17 touchdown passes and just two interceptions over their last five games. He has played his way into the MVP discussion as we head into the final six weeks of the regular season.
The Seahawks are limping into this matchup. Seattle has lost two straight games against NFC West opponents. Geno Smith injured his throwing arm in the loss against the Rams, and he gutted it out last week against the 49ers. It was all for naught as the Seahawks’ offense was stifled on Thanksgiving night by the Niners defense. Seattle has dropped three of its last four and the offense has scored just three touchdowns in that span.
Being past the halfway point now, the league has many injuries to sift through. This game is no different. The most significant injury question coming into this matchup is the status of Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III. He is listed as questionable, but reports suggest he will not be available for the second straight week. The good news is we have plenty of info on every NFL team we can use with our free NFL picks. It’s unbelievable how quickly the NFL season flies by, so we must capitalize on every chance.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 29, 2023
Here is a look at the latest NFL betting lines on the total for Thursday Night Football. The current odds have the total for this showdown at just 47½ points. That total suggests that these offenses will show up. We should be able to trust the Cowboys in this spot. Dallas is averaging a whopping 41 points per game at home this season! The Cowboys are averaging over 39 points per game since their bye.
Both teams move at a blistering pace. Seattle’s offense has been eighth in neutral pace and sixth in passing rate over the last two months. The Cowboys have been cooking on offense, ranking fourth in neutral pace and fifth in passing rate over this same time.
Scoring has been a premium so far in the 2023 season. The under has hit in over 59% of games this season. Primetime spots have gone under the total in 29 of 38 games – a 76.3% hit rate. This season has been ugly for anyone betting on scoring markets as we NFL player prop bettors do.
The NFL point spread has the Cowboys as huge 9½-point favorites. The Cowboys have won 13 consecutive games at home since last season. Dallas is also the second-best team against the spread this season, going 8-3 ATS through the first 11 games.
Touchdown picks have been difficult so far this season, but my goal is to give us winners the rest of the way through the Super Bowl. The analysis has been spot on, but our guys just haven’t been the ones to find paydirt. If you rode the touchdown train last season, you’ll recall we had multiple weeks of over 15 units of profit. I aim for us to climb back into the green with the final six weeks of the regular season.
As the conductor of the touchdown train, I’ve once again narrowed down the best options for anytime touchdown scorers for you here on Thursday Night Football in Week 13. Let’s get to the best NFL bets for the Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks. Best of luck if you tail!
Cowboys vs Seahawks Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets
Dak Prescott has put together five straight games with at least two touchdown passes. Many people will probably be clamoring for the veteran Brandin Cooks to score again this week, but I’m looking in other places. Cooks’ usage has been on the rise, with an 80% route participation in three of the last four games, but he is seeing just 16% of targets per route run. Seattle has a solid secondary that has kept deep passing in check. CeeDee Lamb will always get his, but the matchup isn’t juicy for him either, as Seattle’s top corner this season is Devon Witherspoon in the slot.
Jake Ferguson hasn’t scored in two weeks, but he had three straight games with a touchdown from Weeks 8-10. Seattle runs zone coverage at a top five rate, and the Cowboys’ tight end has been second in target share against zone coverage over the last two months. Ferguson is quietly second in the NFL in total red zone targets this season, trailing only Davante Adams. Seattle has allowed just one touchdown to tight ends this season, but it is bottom-10 in receptions per game to the position.
Tony Pollard should find plenty of room to run on the ground. Seattle’s run defense has been putrid over the last month, allowing the third-highest explosive run rate and the highest yards after contact. The running game will set up the play action, which will have Prescott looking for his reliable tight end in the red zone. I expect Ferguson to be one of the busiest Cowboys this week.
NFL Pick: Jake Ferguson (+160)
The point spread suggests the Seahawks will be playing from behind. The matchups on the perimeter for Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf aren’t attractive, but rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the slot has a friendly one. We all have heard the name DaRon Bland by now, as he set the NFL record last week for the most pick-6s in a season. Most aren’t aware that Bland moved to the perimeter from the slot earlier this season when Trevon Diggs suffered a torn ACL. Filling the slot role has been Jourdan Lewis. Teams can attack the Cowboys here as Lewis allows a 73% catch rate, whereas Bland is 52.5% and Stephon Gillmore 50% man the outside.
J. S. N.
WHAT A GRAB.
— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2023
Smith-Njigba has played third fiddle to Lockett and Metcalf all season, but I expect him to be a focal point of Seattle’s passing game this week. Lewis ranks 34th in passer rating among 35 slot corners. Dan Quinn’s defense runs a single high safety, the second most in the NFL. The rookie receiver is second on the team in first-read share when facing single-high coverage. With the Cowboys’ vaunted pass rush likely going to be all over Geno Smith, I expect Smith-Njigba to be a direct beneficiary of quick passing. He’s explosive after the catch, and Seattle will need him to be as the Cowboys lead the NFL in pass rush win rate.
NFL Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+300)
Questions Of The Day
Which TNF Anytime Touchdown Scorer is the best value bet?
The TNF anytime touchdown scorer with the best value is Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson.
Which team will rush for more yards in the first half of the TNF Primetime game?
The Cowboys will rush for more yards in the first half, as they have allowed just one running back to run for more than 69 yards this season.