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TNF Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Prop Up Browns vs Jets

We have reached the final Thursday Night Football game of the 2023 regular season. Breece Hall and the New York Jets will travel to Cleveland to take on Joe Flacco and the Browns. I’m here kicking off Week 17 with the best NFL bets of the week! It’s always painful to know the season is nearing its end, but let’s not dwell on it.

The Browns are coming off a 36-22 win over the Houston Texans, and the Jets have won two of their last three games. As we entered the season, these two franchises had Super Bowl aspirations, but both teams lost their franchise quarterback to a season-ending injury. The Browns have found a way to win games, whereas the Jets have not, with their backups under center.

TNF Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Prop Up Browns vs Jets
TNF Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Prop Up Browns vs Jets

Cleveland has strung together three consecutive wins with Joe Flacco at the helm, giving the Browns a 10-5 record as we come into Week 17. It’s just the third time since 1999 that Cleveland has won 10 games, and although the Browns haven’t locked up a playoff spot quite yet, they are well on their way to a postseason appearance for just the second time in the last 20 years.


The Jets’ offense finally scored some points last weekend in their win over the Commanders. Washington owns the worst defense in the NFL, so we can’t be convinced they can replicate that success on Thursday night in Cleveland against the Browns, who are the best defense in the NFL in success rate. This is a terrible spot for the NFL’s worst offense to travel on a short week to battle the NFL’s No. 1 overall defense that allows a league-low 13.1 points per game at home.

At this point in the season, every team has suffered significant injuries that have impacted them all over the field, and this game is no exception on a short week. At the time of writing, Jets quarterback Zach Wilson, who sat out last week, remains questionable with a concussion. I expect him to miss another game and the Jets will trot veteran Trevor Siemian out for his second straight start. He completed 27 of 49 passes for 217 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the win over Washington in Week 16.

The good news is we have plenty of info on every NFL team we can use with our NFL expert picks today. It’s unbelievable how quickly the NFL season flies by, so we must capitalize on every chance we have remaining.

Here is a look at the latest NFL betting lines on the total for Thursday Night Football. The current odds have the total at just 35 points. With Flacco under center, the Browns have ranked about league average in pace but fifth in passing rate. The Jets have been so inconsistent all season that we can’t trust what their offense is cooking from week to week.

The Browns have seen six of their eight games at home this season go under the total, and the Jets have gone under the total in eight of their last 10 games overall! Thursday night games have a reputation for poor play and unders cashing, but we have seen five straight Thursday Night Football games go over the Vegas total.

The NFL point spread has the Browns as 7½ -point favorites. Cleveland has been strong at home covering the spread in their last five games at home, and they have covered the spread in six of their last seven games as the favorite. Meanwhile, the Jets have struggled away from MetLife, covering the spread in just two of their last 11 away games.

As the conductor of the touchdown train, I’ve once again narrowed down the best options for anytime touchdown scorers for you here on Thursday Night Football in Week 17. Let’s get to the best NFL bets today for the Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets. Best of luck if you tail!

Browns vs Jets Best Anytime TD Scorer Bet

Browns TE David Njoku (+210)

The Browns may not be a team to consider when it comes to Super Bowl betting this season, but they are a win away from clinching a spot in the postseason. Joe Flacco has taken control of this offense under Kevin Stefanski, throwing for over 300 yards in three consecutive weeks. The Browns’ defense ranks first in yards allowed so we should expect them to bog down the pathetic Jets offense all night.

The Jets’ pass defense could keep Flacco in check compared to what we’ve seen recently from the veteran gunslinger. New York ranks third in DVOA against the pass, so I expect to see some regression from Flacco. The Jets have been phenomenal on the outside against wide receivers, allowing the fewest receptions, yards and touchdowns to the position this season. This has forced opposing offenses to utilize their tight ends in the red zone.

Njoku has scored a touchdown in three straight games, including two touchdowns in Week 14. He has an insane 10 targets in the end zone since Week 7. Gang Green is tied with the second-most scores allowed to tight ends this season. The former first-round pick is enjoying a career year, and I’ll bank on it continuing.

Browns Defense/Special Teams (+550)

I don’t expect a plethora of points in this game, with these two defensive units likely going to perform well. I especially expect Cleveland to show out at home in a game that it can clinch a playoff spot with a win. The Browns’ defense has been elite at home this season and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will have his guys ready to roll on the short week.

The Browns’ defense is first in EPA per dropback and EPA per play. They are allowing the fewest yards per game in the NFL by a wide margin. The NFL is notoriously a league of attrition, and somehow, the Browns’ defense remains intact at every level. The pass rush led by Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith will torment Trevor Siemian all night. The Jets’ offensive line has given up the second-most sacks in the NFL. This is a perfect spot for the Dawg Pound to dominate.

 

 

Questions Of The Day

Which team has more opportunities to score more than 3 touchdowns?


The Browns will have more opportunities to score more than 3 touchdowns.

Which player prop has the best value by the odds to place a bet?


The player prop with the best value by the odds is David Njoku to go over his receiving yardage.

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