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TNF Parlay and Props: Ride Rams to the Bank

Thursday Night Football has typically been a circus show of explosive scoring from underdogs. But we’re betting against that this week as the Los Angeles Rams hold down the fort against the New Orleans Saints. Not only will the Rams win and cover, but they’ll do it in a way that keeps the scoring low. This team is on fire and is a trendy NFL playoff prediction. We don’t disagree.

Best Week 16 TNF Props

Kyren Williams to Punish the Saints

Kyren Williams is the Rams’ not-so-secret weapon. It’s not a coincidence that Los Angeles is 5-2 overall and 7-0 against the NFL spreads (ATS) when he has 100+ rushing yards and/or a touchdown. If the Rams are going to win, Williams will have to feature as a big part of the team’s offense.

TNF Parlay and Props: Ride Rams to the Bank
TNF Parlay and Props: Ride Rams to the Bank


And he’s legit. Influenced by former Rams running back Steven Jackson, Williams is elusive and versatile. He’ll easily go over 88½ rushing yards and score a touchdown. Maybe even two. Given the NFL odds, it’s worth betting on Williams as the Saints have given up 100+ rushing yards in 11 of their 14 games.

NFL Pick: Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Kyren Williams (-150)

NFL Pick: Kyren Williams Over 88½ rushing yards (-143)

 

Rams Expose Saints Defense

The Saints are ranked sixth in scoring defense (19.1 points per game) and 11th in total yards (311.9). But this team is a fraud as it pads its stats against the losers of the NFL. New Orleans is winless (0-7) against teams with records of .500 or better at the time of their matchups. And four of these teams lit up New Orleans for 24 or more points.

The Rams will do that here. They have scored 28+ points in four straight games and they’ve scored 26+ in eight of Williams’ 10 games.

Coach Sean McVay is also great when playing on a short turnaround: His Rams are 5-1 on Thursday Night Football and that one loss came against Pete Carroll’s Seahawks by one point. He’ll out-coach Dennis Allen, a lame-duck coach, and we’re betting online on the Rams to cash these props along the way.

NFL Pick: Race to 25 Points – Rams (+110)

NFL Pick: Rams Total Touchdowns – Over 2½ (-154)

 

Carr Tries to Carry New Orleans

Quarterback Derek Carr has had a so-so season for the Saints. According to him, he’s been playing injured for quite a bit now. And if you add the lack of chemistry and questionable play-calling, we understand why he’s had an up-and-down campaign. But even with all that, he’s managed to compile 3,098 passing yards, 16 TDs and a 92.5 passer rating.

In this game, Carr will be relied upon more as the Rams could go up quickly. The Saints will need to throw the ball a lot so it’s worth an NFL pick or two that the Saints’ passing player props will all go over their projections.

NFL Pick: Derek Carr (NOS) Passing Yards – Over 221½ (-139)

NFL Pick: Head-to-Head Most Passing Yards – Derek Carr (+135)

 

Best Saints-Rams Parlay

While we love the Rams’ offense here, we’re not digging it enough to carry the total over 46. We can see the total falling just shy of that mark as Aaron Donald and the defense keep New Orleans to a low score. The Saints failed to hit the 20-point mark in six games this season. They went 1-5 in these games. Make it seven games and 1-6.

Same-Game Parlay: Los Angeles Rams & Under 46

 

 

Questions Of The Day

Which team will rush for more yards in the first half of the TNF Primetime game?


Both the Saints and Rams feature their running backs as their offense. Given the NFL lines, it’s better to bet on the Rams to lead the half with more rushing yards.

Which prop bet offers more value for bettors in the TNF primetime?


Despite the Rams’ better odds of winning, there are good value props for Saints quarterback Derek Carr.

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