TNF Parlay: Bet Bills to Outscore Dolphins

mooooooood@BudLight | #EasyToCelebrate pic.twitter.com/J27b9mugc3

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 8, 2024

Bills vs Dolphins Game Information

• Game: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
• Date/Time: Thursday, Sep. 12, 8:20 p.m. ET
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami FL
• Bills vs Dolphins Live Stream: Amazon Prime

Bills vs Dolphins Odds and Spreads

Back Bills in this Same-Game Parlay

One Name: Josh Allen

Just as Tom Brady consistently owned the Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen has regularly dusted Miami. The Bills quarterback is 10-2 all-time against Miami and averages over 280 yards to go with 33 touchdown passes along with over 53 rushing yards and five TDs. No QB since 1950 with at least five starts has put up numbers like this against one opponent.

Josh Allen jumped over a 3-time all-pro and 6-time pro bowler in Budda Baker pic.twitter.com/qxkIMChgAn

— Kevin Massare (@KevinMassare) September 8, 2024

And we expect Allen to continue producing against Miami. The Dolphins have an improved defense under new coordinator Anthony Weaver. They held the Jaguars to 183 passing yards and 20% (2-of-10) in third-down efficiency. More notably, they shut Jacksonville out in the second half, which bought the offense time to rally.

But Allen is not Trevor Lawrence. He is arguably the most talented QB in the league and, yes, we remembered Patrick Mahomes. Allen carries Buffalo regardless of how often the team changes coaches and players around him.

But can Allen continue to play “Superman” for Buffalo despite a hurt hand?

The two-time Pro Bowler said his hand was “fine” when asked about it following the win over Arizona. However, there is still skepticism on the status of his hand.

“Again, we’ll find out — I’m not quite sure,” Allen said. “I’m not a doctor. But just kind of landed on it, I guess.”

Allen’s injury status, coupled with Miami’s home-field advantage, may have contributed to Buffalo opening as 1½-point underdogs on the early NFL betting lines. It quickly dropped to -1.

Still, our money is on the team with Josh Allen.

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Bills Beat Up on Dolphins but …

The Dolphins did recently find a way to take out Buffalo. It was two years ago. Miami edged Buffalo 21-19 as a four-point underdog. The Dolphins gave up nearly 500 yards (including 400 passing from Allen) but won the turnover battle. Buffalo ran out of time on the verge of a comeback.

What an ending to the Bills-Dolphins game! #BUFvsMIA pic.twitter.com/yjlc3H0wUi

— NFL (@NFL) September 25, 2022

This win marks the only time Miami beat Buffalo in the past 11 meetings. Buffalo has outgained Miami in 10 straight games and has put up 400+ yards in eight of these games. The Dolphins can’t stop the Bills and it reflects in the BetUS sportsbook total of 50 points. This is tied for the second-highest total of Week 2 by a fraction.

Games between Buffalo and Miami tend to go “over” their totals, including six of their last 10 and three of their last four. However, the over/under is 1-1 when the oddsmakers line this matchup at 50+ on the total in this Josh Allen era. We believe Miami’s defense is much better and will put up a better fight. Plus, Buffalo did not look great against Arizona.

Thus, we’d bet the under in the total as the Dolphins may just hold Allen and Co. to around 20 points, which is Buffalo’s average in its last two trips to Miami.

Bet Underdog Bills in a Low-Scoring Game

In a game we see looking like Miami-Jacksonville, we’ll bet online on Buffalo to get the win. TNF games can get ugly as there are only three days to prepare. Many injured players may not be fully recovered and that includes Allen, whose explosive albeit reckless style can catch up to him. Additionally, we like Weaver’s defense to keep Allen and Co. in check.

Given all these factors, we don’t see this game scoring over 50 points. The final score could be 23-20 and decided by a late-game field goal. Getting Buffalo at +105 is not a bad bet either, even if Allen is not 100%. He should play as Sean McDermott’s job is on the line this season and they need every ounce of “superpowers” they can get from their franchise QB.

Parlay Pick: Bills +105 and U 49½ (-110) at +320

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

Take A Look At These Other 2 NFL Special Articles

• NFL Week 2 Picks: Bet Bills to Beat Dolphins 9/12
• NFL Week 2 QB Props 9/11: Allen to Shine, Fade Williams

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