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TNF Parlay, Props: Go Against the Grain and Bet on Scoring

The Chargers and Raiders are expected to play ugly with the total plummeting from 42½ points to 34. This Thursday Night Football game is already being dismissed as a joke. Easton Stick starts for the injured Justin Herbert on Los Angeles’s side while Las Vegas failed to score last week. But we can find some of the best NFL prop bets on Dec. 14 by going against these expectations.

Best Week 15 Thursday Night Football Props

Bet the Chargers Will Score, Really

The kneejerk reaction when a backup takes over a highly touted quarterback’s job is to bet the “‘under.” The public strongly believe that little-known QBs like Stick are due to flop. But plenty of evidence suggests otherwise.

TNF Parlay, Props: Go Against the Grain and Bet on Scoring
TNF Parlay, Props: Go Against the Grain and Bet on Scoring


We just saw Jake Browning light it up last week. And backups who take over an above-average starter tend to outperform the NFL odds. We’re not touting Stick as the next coming of Tom Brady. But given the low expectations, it’s worth betting that he’ll help lead the Chargers to score 2+ touchdowns as well as being the first to hit the 15-point mark.

NFL Pick: LAC Total Touchdowns O/U 1½ – Over 1½  

NFL Pick: Race to 15 Points – Chargers

More Scoring – Both Ways

We’re not done touting this game to produce more points than most NFL picks have it. Look at some of the props on the board. The bookies expect the public to fade scoring badly here. These teams combined to score one touchdown and just seven points last week. Las Vegas did not even reach the red zone.

But the probability of Las Vegas laying another egg is low even if this team puts up just 19.8 points at home. The Chargers’ 20.3 points on the road is also nothing to cheer about. Still, we’re willing to bet online that these teams can each hit the 20-point mark in this game.

This defies their averages and recent trends. But ‘TNF’ tends to do that as we saw with New England-Pittsburgh last week. Otherwise, a safer play is to bet on each team to combine for 4+ TDs.

NFL Pick: Both Teams To Score Over 19½ – Yes 

NFL Pick: Total TDs in the Game – Over 3½ 

The Chargers Will ‘Charger’ in the Other Way

Led by Stick, bank on the Chargers to beat the Raiders. The Chargers have more weapons on both sides of the ball. They may not have edge rusher Joey Bosa. But the Raiders are also banged up. And this team is -10 in turnover differential and is in the bottom quarter of the NFL in red zone efficiency on both offense and defense.

Get all your jokes in about the Chargers “Chargering.” That tends to happen when folks are still sold on them. But this team is effectively skewered. No one believes in the Bolts. And that’s when the Chargers will find ways to win and keep themselves in that middle portion of the NFL Draft.

NFL Pick: Win Margin 3-Way – Chargers to win by 6 or more Pts

NFL Pick: Double Result – Chargers/Chargers

Best Chargers-Raiders Parlay

Maybe we’ve lost our minds. But our official NFL prediction is for the Chargers to beat the Raiders straight-up in a game that will go over 34 points. If it ends with a 7-3 Raiders win, we won’t be shocked. But that’s how everyone is feeling. And the public tends to be wrong.

Same-Game Parlay: Los Angeles Chargers & Over 34

 

 

Questions of the Day

Which team will throw more yards in the TNF Primetime game between the Chargers and Raiders?


The NFL betting lines are all over the place here thanks to Justin Herbert’s injury. But if picking a side, the Raiders should accumulate more passing yards.

Which prop bet offers the best value for bettors in the Chargers-Raiders TNF primetime game?


Find props that tout the Chargers to score points. This team still has plenty of talent and Easton Stick could be better than the oddsmakers predict.

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The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.

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