It’s hard to believe we’re already in the second week of the NFL season, but Week 2 of Thursday Night Football is tomorrow night, and it’s time for my TNF Primetime Parlay. Our NFL odds for Thursday’s clash between the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles are hot off the press, so let’s jump right into the betting action.
I found a pair of correlated plays on Vikings’ QB Kirk Cousins and WR Justin Jefferson as they prepared to take on one of the best defenses in the league last season.
Kirk Cousins Under 265.5 Passing Yards (-115) & 1+ Interceptions (-117)
In Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kirk Cousins had a fantastic season debut with 334 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Despite his success on Sunday, NFL betting fans must temper their expectations for a follow-up performance against the Eagles’ top-tier defense in Week 2.
The last time these teams met, in Week 2 of last season after the Vikings creamed Green Bay in Week 1, the Eagles won 24-7 and held Cousins to 221 yards. He had 277 in Minnesota’s win over the Packers the week prior. The Vikings are in a similar situation this season, and I expect a similar outcome to their Week 2 meeting with Philly.
The Bucs are among the weakest teams in the NFL, while the Eagles’ pass defense is one of the best. In 2022, this squad ranked first in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis to Kirk Cousins tomorrow night pic.twitter.com/4zX6MyiP46
— NBA Slime (@TerryFranconia) September 13, 2023
With Cousins’ average of 238 passing yards per game in 2022 against teams ranked 10th or better in pass defense DVOA, I think his total is inflated and worth betting against.
Justin Jefferson Under 93.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
I like Justin Jefferson to go Under this total. When looking at the BetUS prop builder, we can see Jefferson’s NFL lines are at -114 to earn 94+ yards.
As I stated above, this fade is not so much a bet against Jefferson as it is a correlative wager on my bet online for Cousins to go Under 262.5 passing yards. While I do not doubt that Jefferson will make the most of what’s given to him, he can’t throw the ball to himself.
I admit, this is a hard wager to make after JJ caught nine of 12 targets in Week 1 with 150 yards. But, as mentioned earlier, the Vikings are one of the most likely candidates to be the worst team in the league, and their defense is far from spectacular.
Additionally, in one game last season, despite having 12 targets, the Eagles held Jefferson to six catches for 48 yards and zero touchdowns. Expect Darius Slay to guard-shadow Jefferson again on Thursday and make his life miserable.
2 days until #Eagles football.
Darius Slay dominated Justin Jefferson last year:
– 6 targets
– 0 catches allowed
– 3 pass breakups
– 2 interceptions@bigplay24slay 🔒
— Word On The Birds (@WordOnTheBirds) September 8, 2023
If you parlay all three props mentioned above using current Vegas NFL odds, you could win around $111 on a $20 wager. That is a damn sight better than the odds against this game’s NFL spreads, sides, or totals.