Top AFC West NFL Player Props: Bet on Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes in Week 10

Dive into why betting on Justin Herbert to go over 227.5 passing yards and Patrick Mahomes to go under 234.5 could be your ticket to a winning weekend. Herbert has been heating up since the bye, while Mahomes faces a tough matchup and a nagging ankle issue.

Let’s take a look at my favorite NFL player props today.

Top 2 AFC West Player Props to Bet on Nov 10

1. Chargers QB Justin Herbert Over 226.5 Passing Yards

Topping my NFL weekly predictions is Justin Herbert. The Chargers QB has turned a corner after a slow start, averaging 303 passing yards over his last three games with a couple of multi-TD performances sprinkled in for good measure. This turnaround didn’t happen by accident. The offense is loosening up, giving Herbert more opportunities to let it fly. He went from posting a modest 6.4 yards per attempt in Weeks 1-4 to a solid 8.7 YPA post-bye, ranking sixth among QBs with 30+ dropbacks.

Now, I know what you’re thinking: “The Titans allow the fewest passing yards per game (158.8) and yards per attempt (5.97).” But let’s be real—their recent defensive stats are padded thanks to matchups with the QB B-Team, including backups, has-beens and rookies (Drake Maye, Tyler Huntley, Caleb Williams, Malik Willis, Joe Flacco, and Aaron Rodgers. And yes, Rodgers is past his expiration date. Cry about it.

Justin Herbert currently has an INT/attempt ratio of 0.4% 🎯

The only player to have a better ratio in a season is Aaron Rodgers in 2018, when he set the NFL record of 0.3% pic.twitter.com/3yUcUmTaUy

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) November 7, 2024

On the other hand, Herbert has the arm and weapons to expose their secondary. He’s hit 230+ passing yards in four straight games and topped 270 yards in the last three. The guy’s finding his groove, connecting on 13 consecutive passes at one point last week, showing he’s feeling more at home in the offense. Bet on the over in his passing yards line at BetUS Sportsbook.

Bet This Pick: Justin Herbert Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-113)

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2. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Under 233.5 Passing Yards

Mahomes lit it up last week against the Bucs, but let’s keep it real—that was against a weaker defense and not the Broncos’ stingy secondary. This week, the Chiefs are playing on a short week, and Mahomes’ ankle injury from Monday night is a factor. Sure, he powered through and finished the game, but an ankle tweak doesn’t just disappear overnight. It could easily affect his mobility and limit his ability to extend plays on Sunday.

Mahomes every time we think he’s seriously injured: pic.twitter.com/MYqIEuoQO2

— Patrick Allen (@RPatrickAllen) November 5, 2024

Now, look at the Broncos’ pass defense: they’re no joke. They are ranked 7th in adjusted yards per target allowed (7.18), so they keep quarterbacks honest. They also give up just 4.30 yards after the catch, which is 5th best in the league—bad NFL news for anyone banking on Mahomes’ magic after the throw. And their safety corps? Third-best in the NFL at shutting down receivers. Add to that the Chiefs being favored by 7.5 points, suggesting a run-heavy game script, and it’s clear why Mahomes might not be racking up the air yards. T

this week, banking on Mahomes failing to hit the NFL odds and go under 234.5 passing yards is a winning play.

Bet This Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 233.5 Passing Yards (-112)

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Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.