With less than five days until the Super Bowl on Sunday, it’s time to talk about some of my expert Super Bowl picks for making a killer parlay bet.
Now, you might be thinking going right off the bat with a quarterback-ridden prop would be the best way to go. And yes, it makes sense. We have Patrick Mahomes, the NFL’s top candidate for taking over Tom Brady’s spot as the game’s “GOAT” and the favorite in our Super Bowl MVP odds list to take home the award.
But not just that, we also have Brock Purdy, the league’s biggest “started from the bottom, now we’re here” story. But for this first parlay piece out of five coming your way, let’s go a different route.
For my first slew of Super Bowl picks to make a killer same-game parlay, let’s mix it up a bit with the game’s spread, its point total and a couple of fun props to bring the value up even more.
Pick 1: San Francisco 49ers -2 (-110)
Unlike four years ago when the Chiefs routed the 49ers to win Super Bowl LIV, I honestly don’t see that happening this weekend in Las Vegas. Between the strength of San Francisco’s defense, and the underwhelming performances from KC’s wide receiver corps, my Super Bowl ATS pick goes with the Niners covering the tight two-point spread.
San Francisco has been the most consistent out of the two this whole season, all while Kansas City has had to deal with various slumps and scares in their path to the league title game.
This Niners team is giving off that perfect mix of competitive hunger, wanting to avenge that SB LIV loss and an immense thirst for victory. Even if Purdy is miles away from being at Mahomes’ level, don’t be surprised if San Francisco’s most relevant “Mr. Irrelevant” ends up hoisting the Lombardi trophy at the end of the game.
Pick 2: Total Under 47 ½ Points (-110)
If Kansas City’s offense had actually performed this season at the level expected out of it I would have found it easy to take the over as my second Super Bowl betting pick for this parlay.
Just picture for a second what a fully functional KC offense paired up with San Francisco’s vicious elite attack would have done for the over in this game. 47½ points would have been blown out with ease by those two units.
Coming back to reality though, and with the Chiefs’ offense, especially its passing attack looking the worst it’s been in some time, I’m more sold on taking the under here.
Between KC’s lack of true firepower on offense and how extremely well both teams’ defenses have performed this season, going with the under feels like one of the easiest bets to make.
When you have two defenses that rank in the NFL’s top five defensive rankings, with both units not allowing more than 18 points per game, again, taking the under is a must.
Pick 3: Travis Kelce At Least 84 Receiving Yards (+110)
Travis Kelce and Mahomes will be playing in their fourth Super Bowl together on Sunday, so it’s easy to assume they know a thing or two on how to put on strong performances in pro football’s biggest game.
Now, if you look back at Kelce’s performances in his previous three Super Bowl appearances, he has tallied a total of 257 receiving yards, averaging around 85.6 yards per game.
While the last time Kelce played the Niners in the Super Bowl, San Francisco’s defense was able to keep Kelce to only 43 yards and a touchdown, that was a much better Niners defense he faced last time. This time along, Kelce should be able to bring the heat and do some real damage.
Having already cleared the 70 receiving yard mark in all three Chiefs playoff games this season, and with full expectations of him being Mahomes’ top weapon down the field, going for at least 84 yards or more on Sunday is a very good Super Bowl prop bet to ride with.
Travis Kelce has had a busy 24 hours:
• 7 catches for 69 yards and a TD
• Gained 300,000+ social media followers
• +400% increase in merchandise sales
• Top 5 selling jersey in the NFL
That’s the Taylor Swift effect 🤯 pic.twitter.com/s8rT7kzJTL
— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) September 25, 2023
Pick 4: Christian McCaffrey at Least 2 TDs (+150)
In an earlier piece I did about Super Bowl records that could be broken on Sunday I paid homage to who could easily be the most dominant offensive player out of the two teams competing, San Francisco’s RB Christian McCaffrey.
With a perfect mix of physicality, speed and explosiveness after reception, McCaffrey has become his team’s premier weapon on offense. And yes, this is in an offense with the likes of Purdy, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle amongst other elite players.
I can already see the Niners relying heavily on McCaffrey from early on in the game, all while the Chiefs will look for ways to try and keep the rusher under siege. While I wouldn’t expect many big run plays and scores from McCaffrey, it’s in the end zone with his power rushing skills that he could end up scoring not just once but twice, or who knows even more.
Questions Of The Day
What’s The Best Parlay Betting Strategy For The Super Bowl?
When betting on the Super Bowl of course everybody wants to make as much money as possible. That’s where the fun of coming up with a strong parlay stacked with strong Super Bowl bets comes into play.
Is Betting The Under In The Total A Good Super Bowl LVIII Bet?
With both teams excelling on defense this season, and KC’s offense not being anywhere close to the level needed to be a pivotal factor in this game, betting the under in the total for Super Bowl LVIII is indeed a good bet.