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Trap Game of the Week 15: Beware Inflated Line

On paper, the Carolina Panthers strike a less than convincing pose with a 5-8 record ahead of their Week 15 clash with the 7-6 Buffalo Bills. Thus, on the face of it, it’s easy to understand why the Bills are favored at home over the Panthers. What doesn’t make total sense is the hefty point spread that’s currently trading at the sportsbook exchange.

Markets opened with the Bills as the 9½-point home chalk, but the line quickly broke the double-digit barrier. Now, the Bills are laying as many as 10½ points to the Panthers. That’s a lot of points for a team that has lost the plot and gone from a sure-fire AFC East champion pick and Super Bowl favorite to an also-ran that’s in danger of missing the playoffs entirely if it doesn’t perk up down the stretch.

Trap Game of the Week:Carolina Panthers vs. Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers vs. Buffalo Bills

Maybe it’s way too early to be down on the Bills already, but this game has all the trappings of a trap game in which bettors show be wary.

Carolina Panthers vs. Buffalo Bills

Bills Lost the Plot

This was supposed to be Buffalo’s year. It was supposed to be Josh Allen’s coming-of-age season. The Bills captured the imagination of football fans and betting online markets after reaching the AFC Championship Game in 2020. Hopes of winning Super Bowl 56 and Allen winning the regular-season MVP award were just some of the many lofty expectations markets set for the Bills after a banner 2020 campaign.

Today, at the vanguard of Week 15, those ambitions look downright fanciful, if not hallucinatory. The Bills are trending negatively. They have lost four of their last six games and, for the first time this season, back-to-back games in the last two weeks. They’ve ceded top spot in the AFC East to the New England Patriots (9-4) and they’re perilously perched on the fringe of the AFC playoff frame with a 7-6 record.

To add insult to injury, the Bills are coming off losses to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady separately. The Bills lost 14-10 to the Patriots at Highmark Stadium and then lost 33-27 in overtime to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Granted, the Bills launched a furious comeback in the second half, but it fell short in the end. That’s the bottom line as teams are judged by their wins and losses in the end.

Adding to coach Sean McDermott’s woes is Allen’s foot injury. Allen is a big question mark ahead of Week 15 after he was seen leaving his postgame press conference in a walking boot.

Newton Experiment a Fail

The season isn’t over, but the early grades are in and the Panthers are getting an F for the Cam Newton experiment. The veteran signal-caller played debuted for the Panthers in their game against Arizona four weeks ago and he played a minor role in the surprising victory. However, in his ensuing three starts, Carolina is 0-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).

The Panthers lost to the Washington Football Team (27-21), Miami Dolphins (33-10) and Atlanta Falcons (29-21). Newton found himself sitting on the bench after a poor showing against the Falcons and it wasn’t the first time coach Matt Rhule had to resort to such measures in the hope of salvaging the game.

On the heels of the latest defeat, the Panthers slipped to a 5-8 record and ATS, which includes a 1.9 losing margin and a -2.0 differential versus the spread.

NFL Predictions and Picks

The Bills are in desperate need of a pick-me-up game and the Panthers would appear to fit the bill. However, this game might not be as straightforward as the oddsmakers would have it. What’s more, the Bills face the Patriots in Week 16, and with a lot riding on the outcome of that game too, Sunday’s matchup with Carolina feels like a trap of sorts.

Everything comes down to Allen’s fitness. The kid is the leader of this team and an integral cog on the offensive wheel. He had a monster second-half against the Bucs, practically accounting for the entire team’s offensive production. Heck, if they could have, they would have got him playing defense, too.

The early prognosis is worrisome. Allen is reportedly dealing with a foot sprain that casts doubt on his availability. If Allen can’t play, Mitch Trubisky will get his first start of the season. The Chicago Bears castoff is no savior, to say the least.

Wednesday’s practice will be most revealing and give bettors a better indication of how things might shape up.

Assuming Allen is good to go, though, it’s doubtful he will be 100 percent. He had a walking boot on only two days ago!

As well, one can’t overlook the hangover effect from last week’s loss, which could make this a potential letdown spot for Buffalo. Allen expended so much energy – he not only tossed for his life, but he led the team in rushing by a country mile. One wonders what Allen has left in the tank after the disappointing overtime loss to the Buccaneers.

Granted, the Panthers are out of sorts and Newton isn’t the savior they’d hoped he would be either. And according to the NFL odds and lines, Carolina’s chances of winning are about 20 percent, which isn’t much to hang one’s hat on.

It will take a bold bettor to back Carolina to the win in Buffalo. Never mind, It remains to be seen whether Rhule will start Newton against the Bills.

However, given the stakes, Allens’ injury, the pressure on the Bills, a date against the Patriots looming on the horizon … all that and more make the Panthers as the +10½-point road underdogs a tempting choice for NFL picks against the spread.

Go big or go home, so the saying goes.

Pick: Carolina Panthers +10½

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