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Unpacking Upset Game of the Week

Lookahead Las Vegas odds projected the NFC showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers with the hosts tipped as the 1½-point home chalk. Following Week 11, the markets re-opened on the very same line with the Packers at -1½.

However, as the betting started coming down the wire, the market moved so much that it flipped entirely on Green Bay. Now, the Rams are trading as the -1 road favorites at Lambeau Field. Go figure!

green bay packers vs angeles rams nfl week 12 2021

The reason behind the line movement aside — we can get to that later in this column — the inescapable fact is that the way the market stacks up right now presents a value opportunity for those looking to back the Packers for what is (and is going to be, if the line holds until kickoff) the upset at home over the Rams.

Rams vs Packers Betting Preview

Rams Look to Snap Two-Game Slide

Sean McVay’s side has come back down to earth in the last couple of weeks, but their popularity hasn’t waned in proportion.

The Rams were stunned by the Tennessee Titans in a 28-16 loss at SoFi Stadium in Week 9. Immediately after, they were roughed up by the division-rival San Francisco 49ers Both games represented epic upsets on prime-time television, but McVay insisted neither was representative of the team itself or its quality. He chalked both setbacks to a bad day in the office.

The Rams are coming out of a bye week and straight into the frying pan, so to speak, with another big showdown on the cards. The Green Bay Packers are among the top teams in the NFC standings, currently ranked No. 2 with an 8-3 record and a game shy of the top-ranked Arizona Cardinals.

The Rams, meanwhile, have dropped down to No. 5 in the NFC standings, a position where the pressure is felt the most from those lower-ranked teams nipping at their heels and looking to muscle their way into the playoff frame.

A loss for the Rams, which would go against the current NFL odds, would be detrimental. It could open the door to the Niners if they win over the Vikings. The Niners currently have the tiebreaker over the Rams and a win would put them just a game shy of their NFC West rivals.

Rodgers Has Painful Toe

The Green Bay Packers are coming off a rare loss to the Minnesota Vikings, losing 34-31 on the road despite closing as the 1-point road favorites for NFL picks against the spread.

It was a back-and-forth game between two of the best NFC North teams in recent years, and with the Vikings desperate to get back on track in 2021, they rose to the occasion by going toe-to-toe (pun intended) with Rodgers. In particular, the Vikings proved to be the better team in the final minutes of the game and held on to the win.

Rodgers was playing with a “very, very painful” toe injury and that might have hindered his ability to move the offense as he normally does. However, he had a solid game overall. Rodgers went 10 of 11 for 197 yards and three touchdowns in the second half alone.

The Packers might have been the better team in the game overall, but that in of itself doesn’t always guarantee a win. They had their chances to win but they failed to capitalize. A few contentious calls in favor of Minnesota didn’t help, either.

Back the Packers

Two bad losses for the Rams, but the public is still high on Tinseltown’s star-studded cast. To all intents and purposes, they’re still legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the eyes of many and with the betting online markets. But are they really?

Truth is, the Rams have one signature win this season — an early victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The rest of their wins have come against lesser opponents such as Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts (when they were struggling at the start of the season), Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants, Detroit Lions and Houston Texans. It’s worth noting that most of these teams don’t have winning records. Against elite teams, the Rams have flattened in recent weeks.

Facing a Packers team that is ornery after losing to the Vikings is a tough ask, never mind the fact that they’ll be playing at Lambeau Field. Granted, Rodgers might not be 100 percent and Aaron Jones is questionable and could miss his second straight game, but that’s certainly no reason to lose faith in the reigning MVP or Green Bay’s overall competitive edge.

Lest everyone’s forgotten, Matthew Stafford’s record against Rodgers isn’t anything to write home about — Stafford endured many heartbreakers during his time with the Detroit Lions and many of those were inflicted by No.12. The now-infamous Rodgers Hail Mary pass to clinch the win over the Lions springs to mind.

Stafford was shaky in Los Angeles’ last two games. He said it himself, and he’d spotted the opposition 14 points with costly interceptions and turnovers. If those issues rear their ugly head again, the Rams will be in for a long day at the frozen tundra.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +1

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