We’ve made it to another Monday night, and this one brings us a pair of NFC teams that have faced their fair share of adversity. The Chicago Bears are 3-8 and desperate to get back in the win column meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings are in the thick of the NFC playoff picture at 6-5.
These teams met in Week 6, and the Vikings walked away with a 19-13 victory. Since then, both teams have looked different. One thing is for certain: one of the best NFL parlay bets this week might be on the under.
The Vikings have gone under the total in the first quarter in 10 of their 11 games. Heading into Week 12, the under has hit in 27 of 35 primetime games and more frequently on Monday Night Football. The Monday night spots have gone under in 12 of 13 games. Vikings games have gone under in 4 of 5 games at home.
So nice, we’ll wear ’em twice.
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 16, 2023
The Bears season went off the rails when quarterback Justin Fields suffered a dislocated thumb in his throwing hand in Week 6. He missed four games due to the injury, but he finally made his return to action last week. He played extremely well, completing 16-of-23 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown, and added 104 yards on the ground.
The Vikings lost their starting quarterback Kirk Cousins in Week 8 when Kirk Cousins suffered a torn Achilles. Minnesota made an emergency trade at the deadline the following week when they acquired journeyman Joshua Dobbs. He has been incredible thus far. The Vikings’ quarterback is on his seventh team in seven years and continues to impress us with every opportunity he gets.
Dobbs was thrust into action a few days after the trade without any prior work with the Vikings offense. Dobbs carried them to a comeback victory over the Falcons in Week 9 and followed it with a career-high 268 passing yards in a 27-19 win over the Saints. Last week, he suffered his first loss with the Vikings when they fell to the Broncos on the road, but it was a respectable showing for the former aerospace engineer major at Tennessee.
#Vikings QB Josh Dobbs on how a famous Tom Brady quote has inspired him…
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 19, 2023
At this point, injuries are rampant throughout the league. As of this writing, the most significant news we’re all waiting on is the health status of Justin Jefferson. The All-Pro WR is in the third week of the three-week window to return from Injured Reserve.
He has been marked as a limited participant in practice, but if he returns to action, the Vikings get arguably the most lethal receiver in the NFL back. With the Vikings bye coming next week, I expect the star wideout to sit.
We continue to gather more data on each team to help make the best NFL picks. The primetime showdown has a modest total of 43½ points, according to the latest NFL Vegas odds. The NFL point spread has the homesteading Vikings as 3-point favorites.
These teams are considerably slow compared to the rest of the league. Even with Justin Fields out, the Bears prefer to lean on the run and move at a sluggish pace. With Fields back in the lineup, we can expect even more rushing. Meanwhile, the Vikings are about league average in pace since Dobbs tookover the starting role..
If you are just hopping on the touchdown train, you’ll need to know that I will always play this game smart. I never make picks blindly and throw noodles at the wall to see if they stick just because a player’s odds are long to score.
The research I’ve done will always back up the reasoning behind my touchdown picks. Now that the stage is set let’s get to our MNF anytime touchdown scorer predictions for the Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears. Best of luck if you tail!
Vikings vs Bears Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets
The most exciting aspect of this game will be to watch the rushing ability of both of these young quarterbacks. Before Fields dislocated his thumb in the Week 6 matchup, he rushed for 46 yards in the first half alone.
In Fields’ return last week, he was unleashed, carrying the ball for a season-high 18 attempts. He was given 33% of the Bears-designed rushes and ranks second in the NFL in scramble rate behind only Lamar Jackson.
Fields has one rushing touchdown in seven games played after he punched it in the end zone 8 times in 15 games last season. Some positive regression is on the way in the scoring department for the Bears’ dual-threat quarterback. The Vikings haven’t allowed an opposing running back to top 65 rushing yards since D’Andre Swift in Week 2, so I expect the Bears to utilize their quarterback on designed runs to help out its running game.
The Vikings are 3-point favorites, and if they have any shot to win, it will be because of the passing game. The Bears’ defense ranks behind the Philadelphia Eagles in defending the run.
Chicago’s front has the highest stuff rate percentage in the NFL. It has held opposing running backs to a league-low 3.4 yards per carry and has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL since Week 5.
As I stated earlier, my expectation is that Jefferson will sit. This opens the door for at least one more game that tight end T.J. Hockenson dominates the target share.
Dobbs and Hock sounds like an awesome name for a detective TV show, and they’ve shown they have built an excellent rapport on the football field. The Bears defense has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the NFL and is tied with the third-most receptions allowed to tight ends. Hockenson has proven he’s one of the toughest guys in the NFL, and I think he finds paydirt on Monday night.
Questions Of The Day
Which player on the Bears team has the best value to score an anytime touchdown against the Vikings?
The Bears player with the best value to score an anytime touchdown against the Vikings is Justin Fields.
Which player in MNF has the best value to score a rushing touchdown?
The player on MNF with the best value to score a rushing touchdown is Justin Fields.