Week 10 NFL QB Props: Back Darnold, Sack Maye

Minnesota’s Sam Darnold is primed for a big day against a Jacksonville defense that’s been a welcome mat for passing offenses while New England rookie Drake Maye faces an uphill battle against Chicago’s stingy secondary. We’re going all-in on Darnold’s arm and taking a hard pass on Maye’s passing yards.

Let’s break down what makes these NFL predictions winners in the making.

2 Top NFL QB Prop Picks for Week 10

1. Play: Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings

Betting on Sam Darnold to torch the Jaguars’ defense in Week 10 is an easy call. Darnold’s recent uptick in production is setting him up to feast on a Jacksonville secondary that’s practically begging opposing QBs to air it out.

This defense? It’s a leaky faucet. Per Vikings vs Jaguars stats, Jacksonville is giving up an ugly 264.3 passing yards per game, second-worst in the league, and has been shredded for 19 passing touchdowns this season.

Darnold is coming off a game where he completed 82.4% of his passes and notched a season-high 290 yards against the Colts, a defense that, compared to Jacksonville, looks downright competent. He’s been red-hot over his last two outings, with 530 yards and five touchdowns. That’s an average of 265 passing yards per game, miles ahead of his earlier season stats.

Jacksonville is rolling out the welcome mat for opposing QBs every week, giving up big yards off big plays. With Darnold’s confidence peaking and the Jags’ defense struggling to guard a crossing route, this game has “passing clinic” written all over it. Darnold should clear his passing yardage NFL odds without breaking a sweat.

2. Fade: Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Betting against Drake Maye’s passing props feels like the smart play when the New England Patriots go up against the Chicago Bears’ defense. Sure, he’s been solid since taking over, with a 66.7% completion rate and averaging around 187 passing yards per game.

But let’s be rea: This Bears’ defense is no cakewalk, especially when it comes to keeping quarterbacks grounded. According to the NFL news, Chicago has only let one quarterback hit 300 yards on them all season. Opponents can barely squeeze in one touchdown pass, let alone light up the scoreboard. In fact, they’ve yet to give up more than two passing TDs in a single game.

Meanwhile, Maye is coming off one of his roughest performances to date, and while he’s shown some flashes, the Bears aren’t going to give him the space to get comfortable. Maye’s rushing game? That’s a different story. He just put up a season-high 95 rushing yards, and that’s where he’s more likely to make noise in NFL player props.

So while he might scramble his way to a few decent gains, don’t count on him making much impact through the air. This is the game to fade his passing yardage in your NFL picks and let the Bears’ defense do what it does best: keep quarterbacks in check.

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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