Week 10 Vikings vs Jaguars Picks: Defense Makes Minnesota Best Bet 11/10

With both teams showcasing contrasting seasons, Minnesota is fighting to stay in playoff contention while Jacksonville is struggling to find footing in what has become a disappointing year.

Here’s why backing the Vikings to cover the spread is my favorite NFL prediction for beating this game. Minnesota opened as -4 favorites and the line quickly moved to -7 when word surfaced of injury news involving Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

Vikings vs Jaguars Game Information

• Game: Minnesota Vikings (6-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)
• Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
• Day/Time: Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 p.m. ET
• Vikings vs Jaguars Live Stream: FOX

Vikings vs Jaguars Odds and Spreads

Place your Bets on Vikings vs Jaguars at BetUS Sportsbook!

2 Reasons to Bet the Vikings

1. Minnesota Defensive Dominance Rises With Lawrence Injury

According to Vikings vs Jaguars stats, Minnesota’s defense has been a revelation this season, spearheaded by defensive coordinator Brian Flores. The unit ranks No. 2 in EPA per play and has the highest blitz percentage in the league.

Not only does Minnesota lead the NFL in QB pressures with nine more than any other team (despite playing one fewer game), but the Vikings also hold the fourth-best success rate defensively.

This relentless pressure would make it uncomfortable for Lawrence even if he was healthy. Per NFL news on Thursday morning, Lawrence is expected to sit out Sunday’s matchup due to a left shoulder injury. There are also reports that he may be facing surgery.

Lawrence has missed only one game since the Jaguars took him with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. His backup is Mac Jones, a former first-rounder who was acquired from the New England Patriots in the offseason. Jones has attempted only nine passes this season.

Trevor Lawrence might lead the NFL in “not my fault” plays pic.twitter.com/sXGgMtvAy2

— Joel Moran (@joelvmoran) November 3, 2024

For those betting online, expect Flores’ defense to capitalize on Jacksonville’s vulnerability to turnovers, which could swing the game in Minnesota’s favor.

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2. Plenty of Weapons for Vikings QB Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold’s season has been nothing short of a compelling story for NFL fans. Once considered an unreliable starter, he has flipped the narrative with a 6-2 record, performing well as a favorite and an underdog. He is listed as +8000 in NFL futures odds for Comeback Player of the Year

Darnold has averaged 263 passing yards with six touchdowns against three interceptions over the last three game. The matchup against a Jaguars defense that allows a staggering 6.0 yards per play and has forced just five turnovers in nine games is ripe for an offensive explosion.

With weapons like wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison along with tight end T.J. Hockenson, who made his season debut a week ago, Darnold is poised to lead the Vikings to a convincing win in NFL picks.

Referees every time a defender gets near Sam Darnold pic.twitter.com/enzhUzhiiu

— Ryno – Vikings Uncensored Podcast (@VikesUncensored) November 4, 2024

The Jaguars have shown they can keep games close but have struggled to close them, especially at home. The Vikings’ defensive prowess and Darnold’s current form should be enough to secure a win by more than a touchdown.

Expect Minnesota to control this game, leveraging their pass rush and offensive versatility to take advantage of Jacksonville’s porous defense and turnover issues.

With the Vikings needing this win to stay competitive in the NFC North, they should not only win but beat the odds and cover this NFL spread.

Bet on the Vikings at -7 with BetUS!

Question of the Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.