Week 11 AFC South Prop Bets: Sleeper Pick and C.J. Stroud Headline Top Plays
AFC South fans will be treated to one matchup featuring young quarterbacks squaring off when Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans face Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. While that game isn’t where the bulk of the picks for NFL this week will come from, it does still have a few noteworthy spots, and we’ll start off with one that jumps out in a big way.
Rolling With Titans Wide Receiver — Not DeAndre Hopkins
My personal intrigue around wide receiver Kyle Philips and his rapport with Levis continues to grow, and it’s apparent he’s some version of a “safety blanket” for the rookie quarterback. Philips saw three targets in the first game that Levis was under center for, and then five the following, and five last week. In all three games with the new signal-caller, Philips has topped his over/under mark of 23½ yards set on this game
He’s caught 3-of-5 targets in each of the past two weeks also, totaling 60-plus yards in both games. Philips looks to be in a great position here in a game where the Titans will likely be playing from behind also, so chalk this one up to one of my favorite NFL betting tips of the week.
NFL Pick: Titans WR Kyle Philips over 23½ receiving yards (-109)
C.J. Stroud Gets Nod Thanks to Home vs. Away Splits
There’s little debate that C.J. Stroud has been a home run pick for the Houston Texans. The rookie quarterback has thrown 15 touchdown passes against two interceptions. While attempting to sort through his stats, which includes the five-touchdown performance from two weeks ago, one thing jumped out.
Stroud has thrown at least two touchdown passes in all of the Texans’ home games. He’s perfect four-of-four and this week gets an Arizona Cardinals team that’s allowed 15 passing touchdowns. I think this is a great spot for Stroud’s 2-plus touchdown streak at home to continue.
NFL Pick: C.J. Stroud over 1½ touchdown passes (-173)
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Return of Nico Collins to Top Prop Picks
Texans wide receiver Nico Collins is back this week, and guess who’s been the biggest beneficiary of Stroud’s red-hot play at home?
Collins has totaled 54, 80, 168, and 146 yards when playing at home, while it’s not a perfect mark against his over/under for this week, which is set at 55½, he still gets the nod. For good measure, Collins has also scored four touchdowns at home, failing to find the end zone in just one game, so putting a bit on him as an anytime touchdown scorer at +129 is a decent bet as well.
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Questions of the Day
Would you consider taking a player prop in an AFC South game this week?
Texans QB C.J. Stroud has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every home game this season, making his over/under on TD passes this week a strong target play as a first pick.
Who is the leading rusher for the best team in the AFC South?
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne has the most rushing yards in the AFC South, along with the fourth-most in the NFL at 618 entering this week. He also checks in tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns with seven this season.
