The AFC South heads to primetime this week, with the Jacksonville Jaguars facing the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals. And while there are a few interesting spots worth considering in that game for player props, one stood out among the rest, along with two great matchups during Sunday’s action.
Michael Pittman Player Prop Parlay Looks Appealing
Attempting to break the habit of featuring Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman in the prop picks each week is getting tougher and tougher. He’s been as consistent and reliable as they come and once again has a great matchup this week, That immediately entered him into the conversation as one of the best NFL player props on Dec 3.
Instead of just targeting Pittman’s yards, I’m going to run out a parlay with him, largely due to the fact that his high volume of targets and receptions is impossible to ignore at this point. Pittman totaled eight or more receptions in each of the past four games, with 10 catches last week. He also has either 12 or 13 targets in three of those four games and is unquestionably quarterback Gardner Minshew’s favorite target.
While Pittman’s over/under for yards this week is set at 72½, he’s topped that mark in each of the past two games and four of his last six. More interesting is that Pittman’s over/under for receptions against the Tennessee Titans, who have allowed 158 receptions for 1,935 yards and 10 scores to wideouts, is only set at 6½.
I love the reception prop by itself, but I’m going to parlay Pittman’s receptions and yards together here at +118.
Targeting a Great Spot for Jaguars TE Evan Engram
While Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram has been a bit overlooked at times while playing alongside a talented receiving corps that includes Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley, this is an elite spot for him. The Bengals have been one of the worst teams in the NFL against opposing tight ends, allowing 757 yards and four scores.
Engram checks in with an over/under for receiving yards at just 42½. While he’s been up-and-down in terms of production, he faced a similar spot last week against a team that struggles against tight ends in the Houston Texans, and he caught five passes for 49 yards.
I think Engram once again sees a strong volume of targets and winds up clearing 50-60 yards with a decent amount of ease.
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Great Spot for Discounted Number on Texans RB Devin Singletary
With fellow Texans running back Dameon Pierce returning from injury last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, it marked the end of Devin Singletary’s stellar two-game run. Singletary had totaled 262 rushing yards and two touchdowns over that span, but with both running backs active, they received just five and six carries a piece and neither was able to get anything going.
One thing that stood out was the Texans opting to utilize Singletary’s skillset as a pass-catcher following Pierce’s return. He hauled in 6-of-7 targets for 54 yards and was a great safety valve for C.J. Stroud. Since Pierce is active, Singletary’s projected totals for this week are down across the board.
I’m targeting Singletary’s over/under for receiving yards, which is set at just 10½ yards — a number he’s capable of picking up with one catch. The Texans face a Denver Broncos team that’s allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs, and that bodes well for Singletary here.
Big Odds on Player Prop Parlay With Darkhorse TD Candidates
I’ll preface this last pick by stating that it’s a longshot bonus play that’s worth considering going very, very light on. The Texans will be without one member of the three-headed pass-catching attack for quarterback C.J. Stroud this week, as tight end Dalton Schultz is dealing with a hamstring injury.
In turn, it’ll be third-year tight end Brevin Jordan who’ll step into a much larger role. While Jordan has a limited history, he did catch three touchdowns on 20 total receptions during his rookie year and has scored once this season as well.
Best of all, the Texans face a Broncos team that’s ranked as the worst in the NFL against tight ends, allowing 775 yards and six touchdowns. For a player with odds of +325 to score at any point in Week 13, there’s plenty of appeal there.
Why not tack on one more elite spot for a touchdown scorer who checks in with big odds and create a parlay that would pay out nicely? I highlighted Engram, and while he’s failed to find the end zone through 11 games, I’m willing to chalk that up to him being “due” to score at this point. Engram has scored at least three times in all but one of his seasons in the NFL, and this matchup should provide the opportunity.
Engram’s odds to score in Week 13 are +260, so parlaying him with Jordan will offer odds of +1400. It’s a dart throw here, but both players finding the end zone would be far from shocking this week.
Questions of the Day
Which Week 13 AFC South prop bet offer the most upside?
Upside abound with tight ends so go with a parlay of Evan Engram and Brevin Jordan to cash for a sweet profit.