Week 2 AFC South Best Prop Picks: Buying Calvin Ridley Stock, Targeting a Few Head-Scratching Projections
As Week 2 of the NFL season rollis into a loaded Sunday slate, many fans are left still attempting to wrap their heads around some of the results from Week 1. A few of the upsets, close games, and teams that emerged to look far better than expected have set up some interesting NFL betting lines and prop bets.
The AFC South this week offers two teams facing top-tier AFC quarterbacks (Chargers vs. Titans and Chiefs vs. Jaguars) along with a divisional matchup that will gives fans their first look at two of the top-five picks from the 2023 NFL Draft in quarterbacks C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson.
There are a number of props to roll through, so let’s get it going with one of the biggest “he’s back” performances in Week 1 — Jaguars wideout Calvin Ridley.
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Calvin Ridley Goes Back-to-Back With Big Performances
There was maybe three percent of my betting brain that was weary of the overconfidence last week in the NFL predictions to go heavily with the over on Calvin Ridley’s total receiving yards, which was floating in the 60’s. He smashed that number, tallying eight catches for 101 yards and one touchdown.
Ridley is the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver for the Jaguars, and when watching him and quarterback Trevor Lawrence play together, it was almost shocking to remember they hadn’t played a regular season game as teammates before last week. These two are locked in. The Chiefs gave up 253 yards through the air last week and I think Ridley clears his prop number once again.
NFL Pick: Calvin Ridley over 75.5 receiving yards
C.J. Stroud Clears Projected Passing Yardage Total
When running through the long list of potential AFC South props for this week, one name that kept popping back up was Houston Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. He faced a tough Ravens defense last week and still managed to throw for 242 yards. Although the Texans offense was unable to find the end zone, the NFL predictions on Stroud’s total passing yards in Week 2 are somewhat baffling.
The Colts defense isn’t bad by any means, but they allowed 241 passing yards and if you want to factor in the home-field advantage/massive level of energy this fan base is going to bring, I think we could see Stroud have a big game. But even if not, a passing total projection of 207.5 in a game where he’s facing off with a quarterback selected just after him feels far too low.
Grab the over and don’t be shocked if we get a few glimpses of Richardson and Stroud going back-and-forth at some point.
NFL Pick: C.J. Stroud over 207.5 passing yards
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Targeting Christian Kirk’s Low Number After Week 1
There may be no other single selection of all the AFC South NFL picks in Week that feels truly like a “gut instinct” than the situation with Christian Kirk. To be as blunt as possible, Kirk was essentially the man for the Jaguars’ passing attack last year, he was the top weapon, caught 84 passes for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns and looked far-and-away primed and ready to have another big year.
But when Week 1 came and went, the same thing happened with the mentions of Kirk’s name on any big plays, or even multiple catches. While Ridley (11 targets), Zay Jones (seven targets), Evan Engram (five targets), and Travis Etienne (five targets) all received more opportunities than Kirk did with just three targets — it was stunning to see him finish the game with just one catch for nine yards.
Everyone seems to be buying stock in Zay Jones, and that’s fair based on the current outlook but seeing Kirk’s over/under for receiving yards at 39.5, a mark in which he only failed to hit four times throughout the regular season and two playoff games last year, is wild. I can’t imagine this is what his role will look like going forward, and I wouldn’t be shocked if fans are treated to a major turnaround performance from Kirk in Week 2.
NFL Pick: Christian Kirk over 39.5 receiving yards
Robert Woods Ramps Up Role as Safety Blanket for Stroud
While there are a few things that point to Robert Woods being a great options among the NFL expert picks of the week, it’s hard not to do a bit of a double-take when seeing that his over/under for receiving yards is only set at 33.5. Woods caught six passes for 57 yards in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens, but arguably the most important stat is that he and Nico Collins were the only two Texans players to tally more than four targets (Collins seeing 11, Woods 10).
Woods appears to have emerged as a safety outlet for Stroud and is absolutely the most experienced player in Houston’s passing attack. If the connection and rapport seen between Stroud and Woods in Week 1 was any indication, he should clear this mark with ease.
NFL Pick: Robert Woods over 33.5 receiving yards
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