I don’t love the term “betting lock” because many things can happen throughout a game that causes unlikely outcomes. I really have to feel confident about a game to consider it a “lock,” and I just don’t feel that strongly about any games this week and don’t strongly agree/disagree with other NFL expert picks against the spread for Week 3.
Instead, I wanted to cover a few player props on San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey that have a high likelihood of cashing. They may not have the best NFL odds, but parlay them together, and you could be in for a big win on Sunday.
McCaffrey a TD Machine
It’s only Week 2, but McCaffrey already looks like a great NFL bet to win Offensive Player of the Year. The 49ers look every bit as good as they did at the end of last season, and McCaffrey currently leads the NFL in rushing with 268 yards, to go along with two touchdowns.
I am 2-0 this season with my weekly football picks for McCaffrey to score, and I fully expect him to feast on the New York Giants’ atrocious defense on Thursday night. Because of the mismatch, the NFL lines for McCaffrey to score aren’t great at -190. They jump to +200 if you want to take a chance that he scores twice. Frankly, with how the G-Men look this season, it’s not a bad bet.
Christian McCaffrey is the Monster!!!! pic.twitter.com/WueO9t0lGV
— SportsCenter (@thucoccho1) September 10, 2023
But the TD prop makes for a great NFL parlay leg along with CMC’s NFL lines to rush for at least 83 yards (-114) or have at least 18 carries (+110). As a dual-threat player, you can add a prop for him to have at least 31 receiving yards (-114) or five receptions (+127).
For reference, McCaffrey is averaging 21 carries and 134 yards per game on the ground and four catches for 18 yards receiving in his first two games. The only prop I would be wary about is his total carries, as the 49ers may try to limit his workload on short rest.
— Tony (@ts_tsharma) September 17, 2023
To nail this point home, understand that the Giants rushing defense ranks 25th in opponent yards per carry (4.6) and 26th in yards per game (136.5). The crazy thing is most of that damage was done by the pathetic Arizona Cardinals, with 151 yards rushing on 29 attempts.
If you parlay his TD, rushing yardage, and receiving yards props, the odds end up around +450. Forget NFL straight-up picks. There are like three locks in this game alone with CMC props.