Week 5 AFC South NFL Prop Bets: Top Picks, Parlays & One Realistic Longshot

· Oct 07 - 7 minutes read

And just like that, we’ve made it through the first quarter of the NFL season. Heading into Week 5, we’re diving right in to look at some of the best NFL bets for Oct. 8 and three games featuring the four AFC South teams. A few brutally tough matchups eliminated some of my personal favorite potential names to target, as the Jacksonville Jaguars face a tough Buffalo Bills defense and the Houston Texans attempt to figure out if this Atlanta Falcons defense is as legit as its seemed at points this year.

(NFL Odds Week 10: Texans vs Bengals Bet)

Michael Hickey / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP

Fortunately, there’s still a lot to love, and interestingly, there are also some great spots for potential player prop parlays this week. We’re rolling with two parlays, two straight prop bets and then one longshot TD scorer parlay that feels like the stars are aligning for, so let’s jump right in.

Let’s take a closer look at some NFL odds worth considering.

Anthony Richardson Home-Field Advantage Parlay

I feel fairly confident in saying that the NFL expert picks for the Oct. 8 slate of NFL games isn’t going to feature a parlay focused solely on Anthony Richardson’s passing alone. The Indianapolis Colts rookie has proven to be stellar running the ball, but his matchup with the Tennessee Titans is too good to ignore.

(NFL Odds Week 11: Giants vs Commanders Bet)

Richardson was a total of nine yards and one touchdown pass away from clearing this parlay in both of his home games this season. My only concern is if he gets things going with his legs, but it’s not enough to make me stay away from a great matchup here. The Titans have allowed five passing touchdowns, which isn’t a crazy number, but they’ve also allowed the 10th-most passing yards with 1,046.

That’s all appealing, but the Titans’ struggles to defend opposing wide receivers helped add some excitement. Tennessee has given up 71 receptions (No. 4 most), for 825 yards (No. 7) and four touchdowns (tied for No. 4) to wide receivers. Richardson is coming off a game against the Los Angeles Rams, who have been great against opposing quarterbacks, and he threw for 200 yards and two touchdowns in that matchup.

Getting Richardson with 209-plus passing yards and two or more passing touchdowns in a parlay here at +274 moves the needle for me.

NFL Pick: Anthony Richardson 209 or more passing yards/2 or more passing TDs parlay (+274)

DeAndre Hopkins’ Potential Best Game of Season?

Speaking of struggling against opposing wide receivers, the Colts defense won’t get to stand on the sidelines and laugh at Tennessee’s struggles, as they’ve actually been nearly as bad at defending the position. Indianapolis has allowed 783 receiving yards to wideouts (No. 8 most in the NFL) and five touchdowns to opposing wideouts, ranking them in the bottom three of the league in that category.

(NFL Odds Week 18: Cowboys vs Command Bet)

Enter DeAndre Hopkins.

The Titans’ offseason addition has averaged exactly 54 receiving yards per game, and now he draws a great matchup and needs 55 or more receiving yards to make this bet a winner. I love the spot for Hopkins, and you could argue that tacking on a Hopkins anytime touchdown at +160 is more than worth taking a shot on.

I’ll stick with Hopkins’ receiving yardage total here as one of the spots that has a shot to be one of the most straightforward NFL picks of the week.

NFL Pick: DeAndre Hopkins 55 or more receiving yards (-114)

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C.J. Stroud Drops Fourth Two-fer in a Row

The Falcons defense has been more impressive than almost anyone expected through four games, allowing 186.8 passing yards per game. But in this spot, it doesn’t matter if Stroud throws for 80 yards the entire game, as long as he keeps his streak of games with two passing touchdowns rolling.

Stroud has thrown for two scores in three consecutive games, and while Atlanta has been good defensively, and even solid against opposing quarterbacks, one area where they check in in the bottom 10 of the league is passing touchdowns allowed with six.

Stroud is rolling and obviously having no issue getting acclimated to the speed of the NFL game, so being able to take him to toss two touchdowns again here at plus money is something to target.

(NFL Odds Week 8: Browns vs Seahawks Bet)

NFL Pick: C.J. Stroud 2 or more passing TDs (+102)

Dalton Schultz Finally Gets His Time to Shine

Speaking of finding the only areas where the Falcons have really struggled defensively this year, surprisingly it’s come against tight ends. And no, targeting Dalton Schultz isn’t currently a “safe” bet, so tread lightly, but the numbers all point to the former Dallas Cowboys tight end finally getting his chance to shine with his new team.

Schultz has caught 10 passes for 89 yards and one touchdown. But the kicker is, in the two games he’s caught more than two passes, he would have cleared the current receptions prop bet, yardage bet and checked in as cashing the anytime touchdown scorer bet in one of those games.

And all of those random bits of info are relevant because the Falcons have given up the third-most receptions to opposing tight ends this season with 27. They’re also behind only four teams in touchdowns allowed to tight ends with two and are in the top 10 in yards allowed to the position.

I love the spot for Schultz to catch three or more passes and his anytime touchdown scorer odds at +300 are too good to pass up. So I’m parlaying them together at +397 for what will probably go down as the most random NFL betting prediction of the week.

NFL Pick: Dalton Schultz 3 or more receptions/anytime TD scorer parlay (+397)

Big Odds, Longshot Player Prop TD Parlay

Last, but certainly not least, is a longshot parlay that ranks as one of my favorite spots to research. Tread lightly because this is more of a “bonus pick” than anything, but admittedly, it’s not a result where everyone should be shocked if it pans out.

Targeting the two struggling AFC South pass defenses and pairing them up kick-started the process. The Colts and Titans playing each other makes this anytime touchdown scorer parlay even more interesting, but as previously mentioned, both teams rank in the bottom eight of the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns allowed to wide receivers.

So we’ll take Michael Pittman at +179 to score a touchdown to start. He hasn’t scored since Week 1, but aside from a clunker last week, has looked impressive this season and if Richardson tosses two scores again this week, I think he gets on. After all, Richardson can’t let his “step brother” down.

Anthony Richardson and Michael Pittman Jr. rocking matching “Step Brothers” shirts with their faces on it 🤣🔥

(via @Colts) pic.twitter.com/d41Wg1iqdm

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 1, 2023

From there, I’m buying stock in Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and the numbers he’s produced in three games this season. He’s caught 12-of-16 targets for 134 yards and two touchdowns, including a score last week in a five-catch performance. Titans teammate and fellow wide receiver Treylon Burks is out for this game, marking the second consecutive that he’ll miss which only adds to the intrigue of this potential longshot player prop parlay.

NFL Pick: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TD (+270) & Michael Pittman (+179) anytime TD parlay (+925)

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