Week 6 AFC South NFL Prop Bets: Top Picks and 2 Parlays Heavily Targeting Key Matchup

· Oct 14 - 6 minutes read

Heading into Week 6, it feels like there are a decent number of games with fairly close spreads, setting up a number of potentially small NFL Vegas betting lines. While those can be tough to call, we’re going to take a look at the AFC South as a whole, but targeting some of the top prop bets for the week instead of the action against the spread or total.

We’ll break out one lower-odds prop parlay, three different prop bets that jump out from the games, and then tack on a player prop parlay targeting upside and big odds (not advisable to go big on these plays, as they should have a legitimate chance, but also come with plenty of risk). Let’s dive into the primary prop picks first.

Week 6 AFC South NFL Prop Bets: Top Picks and 2 Parlays Heavily Targeting Key Matchup — Mike Carlson / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP

Let’s take a closer look at some NFL odds worth considering.

Trevor Lawrence Passing & Rushing Yards Parlay

A bit later in this article, we’ll look at a target bet for Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence that has an argument to be one of the best values of the NFL odds this week. But for now, let’s kick it off with a bet targeting Lawrence in a prop parlay that brings some great value and on paper, makes a ton of sense.

From the looks of it, Lawrence appears to have turned the corner and is showing signs of tremendous upside in recent weeks. His play against the Buffalo Bills was impressive, as he completed 25-of-37 passes for 315 yards and one touchdown while rushing for 31 yards on seven attempts. Now, Lawrence enters a matchup with an Indianapolis Colts team that ranks near the bottom of the NFL (second-most) in terms of passing yards allowed per game this season.

With Lawrence playing this game on his home field and coming off that win vs. Buffalo, I expected a somewhat higher line for passing yards, especially considering the matchup. But the first leg of this parlay will be Lawrence to pass for 252 or more yards Sunday.

As for leg two, the Colts also allow the third-most yards per game rushing to opposing quarterbacks and have given up two scores on the ground to the position. Lawrence has increasingly started to run more in recent weeks, with seven and eight attempts the past two games, resulting in 31 and 42 rushing yards. Prior to that, the Jaguars quarterback went under his projected number in this game one time all season, and it was the game with his lowest attempts (three). So tack on Lawrence for 17 or more rushing yards in the second leg.

Prop Parlay Pick: Trevor Lawrence 252 or more passing, 17 or more rushing yards parlay (+252)

Michael Pittman Builds Off Week 1 vs. Jags, Rapport With Minshew

The Colts will be without quarterback Anthony Richardson this week, and while backup Gardner Minshew is more than capable of putting up numbers, I’m actually circling one of his wideouts for this pick. Michael Pittman draws a Jaguars defense allowing the ninth-most yards per game to wide receivers with six touchdowns the teams also squared off in Week 1 and he racked up 97 yards and one score on eight receptions.

The big question is how Pittman will do with Minshew, but we do have a small data set on that, as well. He played two partial games with Minshew when Richardson was hurt, posting lines (over the full game, so played a small portion with Richardson in both) of eight catches for 56 yards and five catches for 52 yards. Nothing earth-shattering. But in the lone game he played with Minshew against the Baltimore Ravens, Pittman caught 9-of-11 targets for 77 yards, immediately becoming one of the top targets for the quarterback.

Now we get Pittman’s receiving yardage at 61 or more yards, and I’m going to jump on that spot in a situation where the Colts should need to throw often.

Pick: Michael Pittman 61 or more receiving yards (-114)

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Calvin Ridley Does It Again vs Colts?

The Calvin Ridley debut performance of 2023 is one that won’t soon be forgotten. His comeback from a year-long suspension while joining a new team resulted in an eight-catch, 101-yard, and one-touchdown performance against this same Colts team. Indy has allowed the seventh-most yards total to opposing wide receivers, and Ridley is fresh off a stellar showing in the win over the Bills, catching seven passes for 122 yards.

In turn, I assumed he’d almost certainly have a high-yardage prop here. Instead, he checks in with a modest 62 or more yards needed to clear his mark, and admittedly, that’s a number that could hit if he drops a first-half dud and gets one big play to ramp things up, hypothetically. I love the line here.

Pick: Calvin Ridley 62 or more receiving yards (-114)

Tyjae Spears Continues With Increased Workload

Here’s an interesting one that grabbed my eye pretty quickly. Tennessee Titans running back Tyjae Spears has seen his workload in the passing game increase at an impressive rate over the past few weeks. After catching three passes in the first two games, Spears has caught 11 passes in three games, and in the two most recent he finished with 18 and 35 receiving yards. He’s the obvious top target if the Titans want to utilize a running back as a pass-catcher, but his number for projected yardage isn’t enough to make you wince in pain.

Heading into the matchup with the Baltimore Ravens, Spears needs 16 receiving yards to hit his mark. I’m happy to buy stock in that spot, especially in a realistic scenario where Tennessee is playing from behind.

Pick: Tyjae Spears 16 or more receiving yards (-108)

Big Odds Player Prop Parlay

Tread lightly on this spot, because while each portion of this parlay has a realistic chance, it comes with plenty of risk. Going to dive right into the parlay.

AFC South Player Prop Parlay of the Week: +2100

Colts QB Gardner Minshew 2+ passing TDs (+158)
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence anytime TD scorer – not including passing (+300)
Colts WR Josh Downs 6 or more receptions (+150)

Get in the game and beat the odds with the power of Vegas NFL odds and NFL lines.

Which AFC South team is favorite to have most sacks in Week 6?

Titans. Tennessee has 14 sacks, the second-most in the AFC South behind the Jaguars, and will face Lamar Jackson, who’s been sacked 15 times this year.

Which AFC South receiver its the favorite to catch the most passes in Week 6?

Michael Pittman. The Colts wide receiver is tied for the highest over/under for receptions in the AFC South at 5.5, and in three games (one full game, two partial) with Gardner Minshew starting, he’s finished with five, eight, and nine catches.