Week 9 AFC South Props: Jonathan Taylor’s Home Run Spot, Big Odds Parlay

· Nov 04 - 7 minutes read

While the predictions for NFL this week in the AFC South appear a bit light due to the Tennessee Titans playing on Thursday night and the Jacksonville Jaguars on a bye, there are surprisingly a few incredible player prop plays still.

The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts haven’t been gold mines as of late, but a few of their key matchups, along with their own struggles, help create a fairly loaded rundown of top picks. Let’s dive in with five player prop bets, a small parlay, and then a three-player ATTS parlay to top it off.

Week 9 AFC South Props: Jonathan Taylor’s Home Run Spot, Big Odds Parlay — Justin Casterline / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP

Jonathan Taylor’s Emergence Pushes Forward in Big Day

If Jonathan Taylor shows up ready for NFL gameday this week, he should be primed to absolutely slaughter an elite matchup. The Carolina Panthers have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards and are tied for the most touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs this season. So Taylor’s return to form over the past two weeks (75 yards, 1 TD vs. Browns, and 95 yards vs. Saints) is coming at the perfect time.

Taylor over/under for rushing yards this week is just above 70 and he’s -126 to score a touchdown. The rushing yards are my favorite play here and will be the top pick, but I love the spot for him to find the end zone as well against a Panthers defense primed for a brutal Week 9. I’ll also be parlaying the two picks together for the NFL odds just shy of +200.

NFL Pick: Jonathan Taylor over 70½ rushing yards

NFL Prop Parlay Pick: Jonathan Taylor over 70½ rushing & anytime TD scorer (-126) for odds of +197

Two Panthers Prop Picks vs Struggling Colts Defense

While the typical focus is on the AFC South team, this spot to target two specific Panthers players is too appealing to pass up.

I’ll start with wide receiver Adam Thielen, who’s seeing so many targets weekly that his head has to be spinning. Thielen has been targeted 68 times in the past six games (scoring four times also), clearing double digits in four of those with at least eight targets in every matchup. He’s now topped 72 receiving yards in each of the past five games with no less than seven receptions in any of them while hauling in 11 passes on three separate occasions.

Basically, Thielen has been Bryce Young’s new best friend almost immediately, and he enters a matchup with a Colts secondary that entered the week allowing the eighth-most yards to opposing wide receivers. I’ll take all of the Adam Thielen over 70½ receiving yards.

The other Panthers prop to target is one that will almost certainly get overlooked a bit. Running back Chuba Hubbard has a modest over/under for rushing yards set at 46½, a number he’s cleared just twice in seven games. But Hubbard’s workload has increased in the past four weeks. Over that span, he’s faced three teams that rank among the 11 best in the NFL in terms of yards allowed to running backs.

The one game he faced a defense that actually allows yards to the position? Two weeks ago, when Hubbard totaled 88 yards and a score against the Dolphins. Now he faces the Colts, who are tied with Carolina for the most rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs and have given up the seventh-most yards to the position.

NFL Pick No. 1: Adam Thielen over 70½ receiving yards

NFL Pick No. 2: Chuba Hubbard over 46½ rushing yards

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Targeting Two Texans Pass Catchers in Great Spots

Now for the Texans and two spots that jump out in a big way for C.J. Stroud’s top weapons. Wide receiver Nico Collins has had his fair share of ups and downs this season, but one thing that’s obvious is that he can take advantage of a great matchup.

While Collins seemingly rotates 30-yard showings with 80-plus yard performances, in the two games he faced opponents that struggle to defend opposing wide receivers, he thrived. The first was against the Colts, who have given up the eighth-most yards to opposing wideouts entering this week, and he torched them for a 7/149/1 stat line. But then, two weeks later was a date with the Steelers, who have given up the second-most receiving yards to wideouts – a matchup in which Collins finished with seven catches for 168 yards and two scores.

So, what’s in store this week? Enter a matchup with a Buccaneers team two spots better than the Colts in terms of ranking against opposing receivers. They’ve given up 1,317 yards and six scores, and Collins just needs to top 60 yards to hit his over/under.

Last but not least, let’s talk Dalton Schultz.

The Bucs haven’t been awful against opposing tight ends, but they also haven’t been good. Regardless, it’s Schultz’s play that led to me circling this spot. The Texans’ matchup last week with the Panthers was simply a horrific matchup for passing game, an area where Carolina has been great, so we’ll give a pass on that game.

But in the three games prior to Houston’s loss at Carolina, Schultz totaled 14 catches for 168 yards and three touchdowns (one in each game), while finishing every matchup with 42 or more yards. Now this week, Schultz’s over/under for yardage is set at 35½ and he’s coming off his best stretch of the year with the most targets as well (25 in the past four games). Schultz should clear his receiving total and I really love his odds to find the end zone again, but I’ll touch on that in the parlay below.

NFL Pick No. 1: Nico Collins over 60½ receiving yards (-114)

NFL Pick No. 2: Dalton Schultz over 35½ receiving yards (-114)

Big Odds AFC South (and Opponents) Player Prop TD Parlay

- Jonathan Taylor ATTS (-126)
- Chuba Hubbard ATTS (-112)
- Dalton Schultz ATTS (+210)
Parlay Odds: +950

All three of these names have been covered above, and I’ll happily back each one to score a touchdown this week. Schultz enters with odds of +210 just one week removed from a stretch of three consecutive games where he found the end zone. As for Taylor and Hubbard, it’s two great matchups and anytime touchdown scorer odds that actually aren’t tough to swallow.

I’m going to parlay the three players together for this week’s player prop parlay which offers odds of just under +1000.

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Questions of the Day

Which AFC quarterback will throw for the most passing yards in Week 9?

I’m buying into the Patrick Mahomes bounceback hype after he played Week 8 with an illness and struggled. Miami has allowed the 11th-most passing yards, and the stars feel like they’re aligning for a monster game from Mahomes.

Which AFC player will score the most touchdowns in Week 9?

Not including quarterbacks, I’ll take Jonathan Taylor in an “I’m back” performance against the team who’s allowed the most rushing touchdowns this season in the Panthers. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a multi-score game this week from Taylor.