Weekly NFC South Props: Baker Best Bet for Bucs
The Week 1 NFL odds offer plenty of juicy prop bets across the NFC South. If you are interested in a plethora of options, look no further than the new BetUS prop builder allowing fans to take advantage of the latest Vegas NFL odds.
Tampa Bay travels to Minnesota officially beginning the Baker Mayfield era for the Bucs. Week 1 also features an NFC South showdown between the Panthers and Falcons. The Saints play host to the Titans as Derek Carr makes his New Orleans debut as QB1.
Here is a look at my best NFL prop bets for Week 1 across the NFC South.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield to Throw Over 1.5 TDs vs. Vikings (+141)
There are plenty of reasons for you to be skeptical about Mayfield, namely the former No. 1 pick is now on his fourth team in three seasons. At the risk of regretting this statement in a few weeks, I am still bullish on Mayfield for two key reasons.
#Bucs new QB1 Baker Mayfield looks sharp, touchdown to Chris Godwin.
Mayfield was sharp on the drive, 4 for 4 for 38 yards and TD.pic.twitter.com/GIpa3tqEVn
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) August 26, 2023
The most obvious point is that Mayfield has the best receiving group of his career led by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Rookie Trey Palmer is also a name to watch for the Bucs. Secondly, Mayfield is teaming up with new Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales.
You may remember Canales was the Seahawks’ quarterbacks coach last season when Geno Smith went on his surprising run to his first Pro Bowl appearance. Mayfield is hoping Canales is bringing this same magic with him to Florida.
With plenty of weapons to spare, I like Mayfield to throw for more than 1.5 touchdowns against the Vikings at +141. If you are feeling adventurous, you can pair this bet with the Buccaneers to pull off the upset at +397. The NFL lines have Tampa Bay as a 5.5-point underdog against Minnesota.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson vs Panthers: Under 15.5 carries (-121)
Unders are no fun but typically offer the most value given everyone’s desire to bet overs. While I am excited to see Bijan Robinson’s NFL debut, fans would be wise to temper their expectations.
We finally get to watch Bijan Robinson this Sunday ⭐️
We finally get to watch Bijan Robinson this Sunday ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/HCBRXOWc7r
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 8, 2023
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Falcons head coach Arthur Smith loves using multiple running backs, and Atlanta also has Cordarrelle Patterson along with Tyler Allgeier who will both get carries alongside the rookie. Robinson is also expected to be utilized as a receiver as well which will not impact his carry count.
Let’s take the under on Robinson’s 15.5 carries at -121 as Atlanta uses a committee approach to their backfield against Carolian in Week 1.
Bucs WR Trey Palmer to Score a Touchdown vs Vikings (+500)
Palmer has been the talk of the preseason, and the rookie has an opportunity to make an immediate impact after Russell Gage sustained a season-ending injury during training camp. The wideout ran a blazing 4.33-second 40 time but still managed to slip to the sixth round in the draft.
Trey Palmer absolutely toasts Sauce Gardner on this 60+ yard touchdown
— Barstool ‘Skers (@BarstoolHusker) August 16, 2023
Mayfield already formed a connection with Palmer during the preseason and don’t be surprised if this continues in Week 1. There is great value on Palmer to score a touchdown at +500 against the Vikings. If you want even more of a potential payout, you can take Palmer to notch the first touchdown of the game with +3200 odds.
Panthers RB Miles Sanders vs. Falcons: Over 56 Rushing Yards (-112)
The Panthers have a new RB1 after signing ex-Eagles running back Miles Sanders this offseason. Look for Carolina to lean on Sanders as Bryce Young makes his first NFL start. Take Sanders to hit the over on 56 rushing yards at -112.
Will Miles Sanders break into the top-10 fantasy RBs 💥 pic.twitter.com/djs3aIwsqv
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 2, 2023
Sanders achieved this accomplishment in 11-of-17 games 0last season with Philadelphia. While it was with a different franchise, Sanders faces less competition for carries with the Panthers.
