Lightning Chasing Three-Peat
The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning weren’t expected to win Games 6 and 7 in the first round against Toronto, or sweep the President’s Trophy-winning Florida Panthers, or win four in a row after falling behind 0-2 to the New York Rangers. Now the NHL predictions favor the Colorado Avalanche in the Stanley Cup Final.
When will people learn that counting out the playoff-test Lightning is a dangerous proposition?
With so many players on the team with previous experience in the Stanley Cup Finals, there shouldn’t be much in the way of nerves for the Lightning.
Tampa Bay has won key games on the road in each of the series so beginning the Stanley Cup Final with two games in Denver shouldn’t get the Lightning out of their comfort zone.
This series has a feeling of the 1984 matchup when the young, talented Edmonton Oilers were facing the three-time defending champion New York Islanders. Youth did not prevail in that series as the Islanders climbed to the top of the NHL mountain one more time before Edmonton began its dominant run. Could history be repeating against a gifted Colorado team that hasn’t won it all since 2001?
According to the NHL playoff odds, Colorado winning in six games leads the way at +350 followed by a seven-game win for the Avalanche (+375). Even Colorado winning the series in five games carries better odds than any scenario with Tampa Bay winning.
Let’s look at how the Lightning can become the first team since that Islanders dynasty to win three straight NHL titles.
Vasilevskiy Stands on his Head
Andrei Vasilevskiy knows a thing or two about playing in Stanley Cup Finals with a 9-4 career record in such series.
Some of Vasilevskiy’s struggles from late in the regular season carried over into the first round of the playoffs, when he allowed 21 goals in the first six games of the series against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Beginning with Game 7 of that series, Vasilevskiy has allowed one goal or less in eight of 11 games.
Vasilevskiy only had to make 44 saves in the last two games against the Rangers. He figures to be much busier against the high-powered Colorado offense.
Six of Tampa Bay’s top seven defensemen have been part of each of the last two championship teams, so they know how to insulate their goalie and limit high-danger chances.
Vasilevskiy (+400) is tied for the third best odds to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. Those who bet online will be jumping all over that number.
Been There, Done That
When crunching numbers in this series, nothing stands out more than the difference in playoff experience.
Ten of the top 11 skaters in terms of average time on ice in the playoffs have been a part of the 2020 and 2021 Stanley Cup-winning teams. Tampa Bay has eight skaters with more than 100 career playoff appearances, while Colorado’s leader is Andre Burakovsky with 91 postseason games under his belt. Tampa Bay’s forwards and defensemen have played in almost twice as many playoff games as their counterparts with the Avalanche.
The gap in Stanley Cup Finals experience is even more staggering.
The skaters most likely to suit up for the series for Tampa Bay have played in a combined total of 187 career Stanley Cup Finals games. They have 30 goals and 56 assists between them. As for Colorado, there have been 29 such games and the only goal in the Finals scored by a current member of the Avalanche was by Darren Helm in 2008 while with the Detroit Red Wings.
Tampa Bay’s experience has been one of the reasons why the Lightning have more power-play opportunities than any other team in the Stanley Cup playoffs. If they are on the power play more than Colorado, that only increases the chances of another title for Tampa Bay.
Tipping Point
The depth of the Tampa Bay Lightning has been on display during these last three playoff runs.
Captain Steven Stamkos played in just one game in the 2020 postseason and Tampa Bay still won the Stanley Cup. Brayden Point, the leading playoff goal scorer for the Lightning in both 2019 and 2020, has been out since Game 7 of the Toronto series. However, that didn’t stop Tampa Bay from sweeping top-seeded Florida and then eliminating the New York Rangers in six games.
Point is back practicing and he has been taking line rushes, so it looks as if he will return for the series. That will add another proven playoff producer for the Lightning.
Conversations.
Brayden Point played the bumper on the top PP and centered the 2nd line. He appears good to go. pic.twitter.com/u9z3W7qhrz— Kyle Keefe (@kylekeefetv) June 14, 2022
Capitalizing on Rusty Avalanche
Finishing off any postseason series early is a mostly positive scenario as every player is dealing with some sort of ailment. However, can there be such a thing as too much time off?
Colorado hasn’t played in nine days so maybe the Lightning can steal Game 1 on the road. That would put the Lightning in the position of needing to win all of their home games to capture a third straight championship.
The first period in Game 1 will be key to see how much in sync the Colorado players are.
Net Gains
When it comes to goaltending, there is no question that Tampa Bay has the edge with Vasilevskiy between the pipes.
Colorado No. 1 goalie Darcy Kuemper has dealt with injuries throughout the playoffs and that has limited him to 10 games while Pavel Francouz has appeared in six.
Neither goalie has looked like a Conn Smythe Trophy candidate. Kuemper has a 2.65 goals-against average and Francouz comes in at 2.86. After dealing with likely Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers in the last round, there could be chances to take advantage of the play and inconsistency of the Colorado goalies.
