NHL Analysis: How Stars Can Win Western Conference Title
Hintz Has Been Lighting It Up
Power Play Has Keyed Stars’ Postseason Run
Dallas came up one point shy of winning the Central Division title. However, the Stars are one of the last two teams standing in the Western Conference. They were one of the top teams coming into the playoffs according to the NHL predictions and are four wins shy of the fourth trip to the Stanley Cup Finals.
The Stars were pushed to the limit by the second-year Seattle Kraken as goals by Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston to edge Seattle 2-1 in Game 7. Dallas eliminated division rival Minnesota in six games in the opening round.
Dallas finished with the fourth-most points among Western Conference teams and is listed by the NHL picks as the underdog against the Pacific Division champion Vegas Golden Knights.
When looking at the NHL news, Dallas leads all playoff teams with a +12 goal differential in home games and the 58.5% mark on faceoffs in the seven home games. Dallas also has three road wins in the postseason. The Stars lead all playoff teams with four empty-net goals. The Stars are 7-1 in the playoffs when scoring first.
This is the second playoff meeting between the teams. The Dallas Stars won in five games in Western Conference final in 2020.
According to the NHL playoff odds, the Stars (+300) have the third-best odds to win the Stanley Cup.
The series begins on Friday with Vegas favored at home. However, Dallas has won the last four meetings with the Golden Knights and that includes two road wins.
Plenty of Star Power
Among the remaining four teams, Dallas might have as much high-end talent as any other squad still in contention for the Stanley Cup.
Joe Pavelski is tied with Alexander Ovechkin for the most postseason goals by an active NHL player. His 72 goals in the Stanley Cup Playoffs are the most by an American-born player. He is one behind Dino Ciccarelli and four in back of Mario Lemieux.
Jamie Benn recorded his fifth career 30-goal season. He also has 22 goals and 61 points in 79 career playoff games. Tyler Seguin also has more than 20 goals in the postseason during his NHL career.
Hintz is second in this year’s playoffs with 19 points and nine goals. Edmonton’s Connor McDavid is the only player with more points and only the Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl has more goals. With Edmonton being eliminated by the Vegas Golden Knights, Hintz can move into the playoff scoring lead and the NHL betting lines have him as one of the Conn Smythe favorites.
Roope Hintz and gorgeous, gorgeous goals to open the scoring in the final game of a series.
Name a better duo. pic.twitter.com/zCd89jzLY4
— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) May 16, 2023
Feeling the Power
The teams with the top four power-play percentages in the playoffs have been eliminated.
That leaves Dallas as the most successful team on the power play remaining in the race for the Stanley Cup.
Dallas has scored 13 times in 41 man-advantage situations. No team has been on the power play more often in the postseason than the Stars. That is something to consider when looking at live betting odds.
Jason Robertson and Hintz lead the way with two goals and six assists each on the power play. while Tyler Seguin leads the way with four power-play foals.
All the power-play goals have been scored by Robertson, Hintz, Seguin, Jamie Benn and Pavelski.
That is hardly a surprise since Benn, Pavelski and Robertson each had 13 goals on the power play during the regular season with Hintz and Seguin adding 16 more.
Turning Defense into Offense
Miro Heiskanen might be viewed by some as the only defenseman picked ahead of reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft.
Makar is one of nine NHL defensemen to be named the winner of the Norris Trophy as the top defenseman and Conn Smythe as the playoff MVP.
Heiskanen might not be the offensive dynamo that Makar is. However, Dallas seems to be rather happy to have Heiskanen to call upon on a nightly basis. The sportsbook has Heiskanen among possible candidates to follow Makar as the Conn Smythe Award winner.
He leads all players in the playoffs with an average of 28:15 minutes per game. Seven of his nine playoff points have come on the power play.
Heiskanen is averaging more points per game in the playoffs (42 points in 60 games) than in the regular season (204 points in 354 games).
Making the Save
Goalies aren’t often taken in the first round in the NHL Entry Draft.
Since 2016, only five goaltenders have been selected in the opening round. With Florida’s Spencer Knight not part of the Panthers’ goaltending group right now, that leaves Jake Oettinger as the only starting goalie left in the playoffs who was picked in the first round.
Oettinger was the first goalie picked in the 2017 draft, going 26th overall. He is the only goaltender to win each game in the first two rounds.
Oettinger is 8-5 with a 2.75 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage. Oettinger has a 1.75 GAA and .934 save percentage in the eight victories.
The Kids Are Alright
Oettinger is one of eight players on the Dallas roster under the age of 25.
Heiskanen and Robertson were already established players before the playoffs began.
The first two rounds have given former first-round picks Johnston and Thomas Harley a chance to shine.
Harley, a 21-year-old defenseman, has a goal and six assists to go with a +4 defensive rating in the playoffs. Johnston, a 20-year-old winger, has scored four times with two of those goals being game-winning tallies.
