A Gimme for Wild?
Coyotes Overmatched Against Minnesota
The Minnesota Wild appear to have a “gimme” on Tuesday night as they host the plummeting Arizona Coyotes. Minnesota (14-6-1) is a massive favorite on the NHL betting lines and is 7-2-0 at home while Arizona (5-15-2) is only 2-9-1 as a visitor.
Although there is no such thing as an “easy game” in the NHL, it is hard to envision how Arizona pulls off this upset, especially since Minnesota destroyed the Coyotes in their last meeting. The Wild have won eight straight against them. Arizona has also not won in Minnesota since 2018 and it’s a streak the Wild should extend.
Arizona Coyotes at Minnesota Wild
- Puckline: Arizona +1½ (+120), Minnesota -1½ (-140)
- Moneyline: Arizona +300, Minnesota -360
- Total: Over 6 (Ev), Under 6 (-120)
Coyotes: Give Me a Reason …
To bet online on you guys. Well, Arizona did come through as a big underdog not too long ago. The Coyotes upset Winnipeg as a +260 dog and St. Louis at +272. This still comes nowhere close to the money you’d have lost betting on them, though.
Instead, let’s look at their puckline and see if there is value on them to at least keep this a one-goal edge for Minnesota. Arizona is 10-12 in this area, meaning they lose by more than one goal 54.5 percent of the time. This implied probability is around -120 on the moneyline.
But Arizona has been “on a roll” lately, having cashed on the puckline in five of their last six games. In fact, the only time it failed to cash was due to an empty-netter from Connor McDavid. Otherwise, this team is not entirely dead for betting purposes.
Wild: Staying Power
The joke is on folks who have tried dismissing the Wild’s previous season as a fluke by fading them in 2021-22. Minnesota has gotten even better and other than the power play, the Wild are an above-average team in major categories like scoring chance percent and corsi percent. Also, you can check NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Nashville Predators.
If the Wild had better goaltending, the team may just be the best in the NHL. But as it stands, Cam Talbot is serviceable if not average while Kaapo Kahkonen has been awful in his limited appearances.
Minnesota allows the 10th-fewest shots and a collection of solid two-way players like Ryan Hartman and the resurgent Victor Rask, who has been on fire since being benched. If doubters haven’t been persuaded yet, bet against them on the sportsbook.
With the first period goal, Victor Rask has tallied five points (2-3=5) in his last four games played for the #mnwild.
— Minnesota Wild PR (@mnwildPR) November 28, 2021
Betting Pick
We already covered the Coyotes’ “value”’ as a puckline bet. As an added stat, the team is 2-2 on the second night of a back-to-back and has played better on three of these games. However, they are still outmatched by the Wild here and are getting outscored by an average of 2.5 goals in their last 10 games.
The Coyotes will also likely go with goaltender Scott Wedgewood, who has started to look more like the “old” Wedgewood that was lit up in New Jersey after he started strong for Arizona. Don’t bet the farm on Minnesota, but take their puckline.
Pick: Minnesota Wild -1½ goals (-140)
Bonus Pick
Minnesota has iced Arizona when playing the Coyotes at the Xcel Energy Center. Three of their last four games here have gone under thanks to Arizona managing just three total goals. Even if Minnesota has averaged four goals in this series, they will need two or more from Arizona to get the over. That’s not happening.
Pick: Under 6 (-120)
