Avalanche Can Close Out Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning won most of the statistical categories in Wednesday’s pivotal Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final with the exception of the most important one: the final score. Tampa Bay scored first and outshot the Colorado Avalanche, something it did not do in either of the first three games.
However, a 3-2 loss in overtime puts the Lightning in the position of having to win three games in a row to become the first team since the New York Islanders of the early 1980s to win three consecutive NHL titles.
Brayden Point, Tampa Bay’s top goal-scorer during the 2020 and 2021 runs to the Stanley Cup title, missed Game 4 due to a lower-body injury and it remains to be seen if he can return for Friday’s Game 5 at Colorado.
The Avalanche are 3-1 in elimination games in this season’s playoffs, with three of those four games decided by one goal. Tampa Bay survived two elimination games in the first round of the playoffs against Toronto, winning Game 6 in overtime 4-3 and taking Game 7 by a 2-1 score.
Colorado is 7-2 at home in the postseason and has outscored its opponents 40-23 in those games. The Avalanche are +14.7 in shots on goal on home ice in the playoffs. Tampa Bay is 5-6 on the road.
According to the NHL playoff odds, the series price for the favored Avalanche has moved from -320 to -1400 after Game 4. Tampa Bay’s odds went from +260 to +800.
Let’s check the latest NHL lines, stats, news, injury reports and NHL odds for Avalanche vs Lightning. We’ve plenty of NHL picks and predictions.
Lightning Need to Come Out skating
If people tuned in only to the overtime period in Game 4, they might not have realized that the Colorado Avalanche had a goalie. After Tampa Bay’s Ross Colton had a glorious chance to end the game in the final seconds of the third period, it all went downhill for the Lightning once overtime started.
Shots on goal were 10-3 in favor of the visiting Avalanche. Attempted shots in the extra session ended up 18-8 after Tampa Bay had the early 5-2 advantage. It ended when Nazem Kadri, playing in his first game of the series, roofed a shot that eluded Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.
The numbers in the first two games in the series played in Denver are not good for the Lightning. Shots on goal were 68-39 and that doesn’t factor in the 46 blocked shots by Tampa Bay. Colorado outscored Tampa Bay 6-1 in the first period. The Lightning are 0-for-6 on the power play compared to 3 for 7 for the Avalanche.
Tampa Bay will need to show more jump than it has in those two games. After the early surge in overtime in Game 4, it looked as if the Lightning players were physically spent. It didn’t help that Erik Cernak left the game due to injury and that resulted in Tampa Bay playing most of the contest with five defensemen. Mikhail Sergachev and Victor Hedman played more than 30 minutes, Ryan McDonagh wasn’t far behind at 29:21.
When the series shifted to Florida, the Lightning did a better job of making Colorado spend more time in its zone than in the first two games of the series. Facing a team that is 39-7-4 at home, including the playoffs, that trend will need to continue for the Lightning to keep their title hopes alive.
The NHL betting lines total has gone under in 11 of Tampa Bay’s last 15 games.
Kadri: Triumphant Return for Avalanche
The big question entering Game 4 was whether Kadri would return for the Avalanche. The veteran forward not only made his series debut but he put the Avalanche on the verge of the franchise’s first Stanley Cup title since 2001. It was quite the way to end the first Stanley Cup Final game in which Kadri has played.
Two of the first three shots Kadri took in the game missed the net. His final shot attempt went under the bar and eluded Vasilevskiy at 12:02 of overtime.
IT’S A #StanleyCup PICTURE PERFECT MOMENT
Cc: Nazem Kadri (@43_Kadri) pic.twitter.com/abCxFP1Nqm
— NHL (@NHL) June 23, 2022
The on-ice officials did not see the puck go into the net. However, the players on the ice immediately began to signal that Kadri ended the contest. After a video review, the celebration continued as Colorado took a 3-1 lead in the series.
Kadri had to undergo thumb surgery after he was pushed into the boards by Edmonton’s Evander Kane in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals against Edmonton. Kadri led Colorado in faceoffs taken and won during the regular season. However, in order to avoid further issues with his thumb, he did not take any faceoffs during Wednesday’s game.
Kadri did not look rusty at all when he lifted a shot past Vasilevsky as Colorado improved to 5-1 in overtime games and 6-1 in one-goal affairs.
“Sitting here right now it’s kind of surreal,” Kadri said after the game. “I just was excited to join the team again and be in the dressing room. This is what I’ve been working on my whole life pretty much, so it was certainly exciting to get back in the lineup.”
The Las Vegas NHL odds total has gone over in four of Colorado’s last five games.
Lightning vs Avalanche Head-to-Head
Five of the last seven games between the teams have been decided by one goal, with Colorado winning four of those games. Colorado has won the last three home games against Tampa Bay, including a 7-0 victory in Game 2.
Seven of the last nine matchups had at least seven combined goals scored and seven of them went over the total.
Colorado hasn’t lost consecutive games to Tampa Bay in the same season since dropping all three contests during the 2017-18 season. Vasilevskiy has a 5.45 goals-against average in the two games played in Colorado during this season compared to a 1.48 GAA by Avs netminder Darcy Kuemper at Ball Arena in the series.
Lightning vs Avalanche Game Information
- Game: Lightning (51-23-8 in the regular season) vs Avalanche (56-19-7)
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
- Day/Time: Friday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Lightning vs Avalanche Live Stream: NHL.TV
Lightning vs Avalanche Betting Lines
Lightning vs Avalanche Prediction
Colorado has been the best home team in the NHL this season when factoring in the regular season and playoffs with a +89 goal differential. Now the Avalanche can end a long title drought by winning at home in Game 5.
Those who bet online will need to monitor the playing status of Colorado forward Andre Burakovsky, who hasn’t played since Game 2 due to a hand injury, as well as Tampa Bay’s Point. If the injury that knocked Cernak out of Game 4 keeps him from suiting up in Game 5, that won’t help the Lightning in their quest to extend the series.
Don’t be surprised to see this game being decided by one goal, but it is hard to pick against Colorado at home despite Tampa Bay’s recent run of playoff success.
The Conn Smythe Trophy odds favor Colorado defenseman Cale Makar, who leads Colorado with 27 points in the postseason. Other defensemen to win the award are Montreal’s Serge Savard, Boston’s Bobby Orr, Al MacInnis of Calgary, Brian Leetch of the New York Rangers, Scott Stevens of New Jersey, Detroit’s Nicklas Lidstrom, Scott Niedermayer of Anaheim, Chicago’s Duncan Keith and Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman.
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