Bank on Montreal as Wily Underdogs Against Snakebitten Sabres

· Oct 23 - 4 minutes read

Montreal Could Deliver as Road Underdogs

With a 2-1-1 record for the season, Montreal is off to a promising start. The Montreal Canadiens’ only blemish is a 5-2 loss to Minnesota. For the rest, Montreal has either won or covered the puck line. Looking at this team’s high PDO, this run may be flukish and not last too long. But against the struggling Buffalo Sabres, Montreal could once again be a profitable underdog given its NHL odds for Oct. 23.

Montreal Proving to Be Frisky Underdog

The Canadiens have been finding ways to win games. Whether it’s Cole Caufield’s continued rise to stardom, clutch goaltending, or production from across the team, this team is doing it. Montreal leads the NHL in 5-on-5 PDO thanks to some unsustainable stats in shooting percentage (11.2%) and save percentage (97.4%).

Bank on Montreal as Wily Underdogs Against Snakebitten Sabres

GOAL CAUFIELD. GAME WINNER. 💥

A wrist shot from Cole Caufield results in the @SUBWAYCanada OT winner for the Canadiens! pic.twitter.com/jZr9eFFVpY

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) October 22, 2023

Here’s a crazy stat: half of Montreal’s allowed goals came on special teams. Montreal has been locking it down on 5-on-5. This team averages 12.5 high-danger chances against 9.3 coming back their way. Combined with the high PDO, the “Habs” are cashing bets online for a reason. Now, if they did better on special teams, they’d probably be undefeated.

Montreal has been outscored 5-2 on the power play (PP), giving up two short-handed goals already. The team’s PP% and penalty-kill percentage are mediocre at best. But if they can keep playing excellently on 5-on-5, this team won’t stay underdogs on the NHL lines.

Sabres’ Offense Stalling

On the other end are the Sabres. The NHL’s third-best offense last season is having a tough time scoring. That’s why most of Buffalo’s games have gone under the total thus far. Buffalo averaged 3.57 goals and 11% shooting last season. Currently, both are down to 2.4 and 7.8%, respectively.

The Sabres are also generating fewer scoring chances on 5-on-5. Their power play is 1-of-16, which is 6.3% and ranked 29th. Tage Thompson, last season’s leading scorer with 47 goals and 94 points, has one goal and is -4. He needs to get going for the Sabres to work as NHL moneyline picks, especially as favorites.

But this team could just explode and score 5-6 goals on any given night. Sabres backers could stay patient, especially with Thompson, who started his first seven games with just one goal.

Over/Under Trends Opposite for Both Teams

The total has gone over on six of Montreal’s last eight games. This includes five of its last six conference games. On the flip side, four of Buffalo’s last five games have gone under the total.

Canadiens vs Sabres Betting Lines

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Canadiens vs Sabres Game Information

Game: Montreal (2-1-1) vs Buffalo (2-3-0)
Date/Time: Monday, Oct. 23, 7:07 p.m. ET
Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
Montreal vs Buffalo Live Stream: NHL.TV

Canadiens vs Sabres Game Prediction

Predicted Score: Canadiens 5 Sabres 4

Bet Canadiens or Pass

Given the online sports betting odds, it’s better to back the Canadiens here. Montreal is scoring at a better rate and has better netminders. Buffalo’s goalies are even injured, so it could be down to its third-stringer.

NHL Pick: Montreal Canadiens +1½ (-150)

‘Over’ Still Worth Squeezing

The public did not waste time betting online on this game to go over. Despite the steam, there is a better than 50% chance that this game hits seven total goals. Buffalo is bound to convert on its scoring chances, which averages 31 per 60 minutes on all strengths. And Montreal will continue to score.

NHL Pick: Canadiens, Sabres Over 6½ (-125)

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