No Brayden Point? No problem. The Tampa Bay Lightning play host to the Philadelphia Flyers as slight betting favorites even with their newest injury. Tampa Bay (10-4-3) is on an 11-game point streak and have gained a point in six of their last seven home games.
The Flyers (8-5-3) have managed to continue defying the NHL odds thanks to clutch goal-scoring and solid goaltending. But visits to the Amalie Arena usually result in fireworks as these teams shoot it out on Tuesday night.
Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning
- Point Spread: Philadelphia +1½ (-165), Tampa Bay -1½ (+145)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +150, Tampa Bay -170
- Total: Over/Under 5½
Flyers: Staying Alive
Philadelphia has managed to stay afloat despite a rough schedule in recent weeks. The Flyers have gone 3-3-1 in the last seven games despite playing a murderers row that began with Washington and ended with Boston.
With the Flyers as underdogs in all of these games, they went 4-3 on the puckline and broke even as a straight-up bet. It’s treading water, but it’s a success when you navigate the roughest part of your schedule and still earn points for the majority of it.
Fortunately for the Flyers, they have the best goaltending tandem in Carter Hart and Martin Jones. The duo has 8.5 goals saved above expectations and has limited opponents to a 7.6 shooting percentage on high danger chances. As long as they’re on fire, the Flyers are worth an underdog bet online or two.
Lightning: Breaking Point
The hits just keep coming for the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions. Already without Nikita Kucherov, the Lightning lost Brayden Point indefinitely due to an upper-body injury. Tampa Bay has been on a roll but losing its best second-best available forward along with Kucherov and its best defensive defenseman, Eric Cernak, is stress-inducing.
Tampa Bay has plenty of scoring depth and still has five active players on pace to score 20 or more goals, including captain Steven Stamkos, who leads the team in scoring and is 10th in the league with 19 points.
The Lightning are a shell of themselves and are barely in the top 10 in most metrics. But they are 7-1-2 in their last 10 and are still among the elite teams. The injuries will only place them at a more reasonable price on the sportsbook.
It was a close call for Tampa Bay the last time it faced Philadelphia. Stamkos and Point had to beat Hart in the shootout to get Tampa the full two points with a 4-3 win as -130 favorites. Philadelphia may just edge the Lightning in this one, but it will likely be another high-scoring affair.
Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point each scored in the shootout and regulation to lift the Tampa Bay Lightning to a 4-3 win over the Philadelphia Flyers on Thursday night. https://t.co/UNG6UaZZmf
— FOX 13 Tampa Bay (@FOX13News) November 19, 2021
The total has gone over in 10 of these teams’ last 12 games and five of the last six when in Florida. Even with elite goaltending, this trend should hold.
Pick: Over 5½ goals
When it comes to value bets on the NHL outright market, you will find fewer ones than Hart at 20-1 to win the best goaltender award. Yeah, we peddled Jack Campbell for the Toronto Maple Leafs at +1350 (he’s shortened to +1000 since), but the value is now with 23-year-old who is also having a comeback season. And the media (aka the voters) love a great comeback story.