Islanders Smart Bet to Rake Leafs

On July 1, 2018, then-New York Islanders organizational cornerstone John Tavares signed a seven-year, $77 million free-agent contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs. And all hell broke loose.

Five years later, the anger remains fully intact on both sides. The teams have played 11 times since Tavares left Long Island for Toronto and they will meet Monday night at UBS Arena which makes for interesting NHL opening lines.

Maple Leafs vs Islanders Best Bets

Tavares’ first game against the Islanders on Long Island occurred in February 2019 at Nassau Coliseum.

It was a near-riotous three hours at the old barn on Hempstead Turnpike. Islanders fans cursed, screamed, and insulted the first overall pick in the 2009 draft, starting in warmups and ending during his postgame availability with reporters.

More hockey at @UBSArena!

⏰ 7PM
🎟 https://t.co/EtEclHsLHu
🚘 https://t.co/8uOqN6zR96
📺 MSGSN | @IslesMSGN | @MSGNetworks
💻 MSG+ | ESPN+
📻 88.7FM | 103.9FM | 1050AM
📰 Game Preview ⬇️

— New York Islanders (@NYIslanders) December 11, 2023

Ironically, even though the fanbase still harbors resentment for the franchise’s foundational player, the Islanders may have gotten the better end of the deal despite not getting anything for Tavares.

The top-heavy Maple Leafs have not been able to fully construct a Stanley Cup-contending roster due to salary cap constraints after devoting a not-insignificant percentage of its player financial outlay to Tavares, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly.

As such, the Leafs –who have qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in every season with Tavares on the roster– lost in the first round of the playoffs four straight years before being eliminated in the second round last season.

Meanwhile, the Islanders reached the playoffs in four out of five seasons – missing in 2021-22 – which included back-to-back runs to the NHL’s final four in 2019-20 and 2020-21.

Entering Monday night’s game at UBS Arena, the teams are in the relatively same place. Toronto is 14-6-4 for 32 points, good for third in the Atlantic Division, while the Islanders’ 12-7-7 record and 31 points have them holding the second wild card slot in the Eastern Conference.

Both teams are 4-1-2 in their last seven games and are dealing with significant injuries (Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock for New York; Joseph Woll for Toronto).

Offensively, Toronto has scored two more goals (80-78) and is averaging more goals per game (3.33-3.00). Defensively, the Leafs have allowed six fewer goals than the Islanders (82-76), but New York has a better goals allowed per game average (3.17-3.00).

However, the biggest difference between the two teams is in goal. New York’s No. 1 goaltender, Ilya Sorokin, is 7-4-6 in 17 games –all starts– with a .913 save percentage, two shutouts, and a 3.12 goals-against average. His backup, Semyon Varlamov, has been just as good. Varlamov has a 5-3-1 record in nine games, a 2.55 goals against average, a .925 save percentage, and two shutouts.

By comparison, the Toronto duo of Martin Jones and Ilya Samsonov do not engender confidence. Jones has a 6.23 goals against average and .900 save percentage, while Samsonov checks in with a .886 save percentage and 3.21 goals against average.

So even though the Maple Leafs are a -125 NHL odds favorite, take the Islanders.

NHL Pick: New York Islanders +105

Maple Leafs vs Islanders Betting Lines

Maple Leafs vs Islanders Game Information

• Game: Maple Leafs (14-6-4) vs Islanders (12-7-7).
• Location: UBS Arena, Elmont, New York, NY
• Day/Time: Monday, Dec. 11, 7:00 P.M. ET
• Maple Leafs vs Islanders Live Stream: NHL.TV

Questions Of The Day