In this rematch from last year’s second round in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the New York Islanders look to once again stifle the potent offense of the Philadelphia Flyers. The NHL odds are favoring the Flyers, who are second in the East Division while the Islanders are second-last.
The Isles limited the Flyers to just three goals in their four wins including shutting them out in the first and final game of last year’s playoff series. These two teams play opposing styles with the defensive-minded Islanders content to win 1-0 if they have to while the Flyers score in bunches.
It could go either way depending which team quickly asserts its style. I’ll have to disagree with the online sports betting odds here as I think this should be a pick’em regardless of each team’s records right now.
Islanders vs Flyers Betting Preview: Quick Look at Each Team
Islanders: Slow And Steady Wins The Race
For the most part this season, the Islanders have been an elite defensive team. If you take out their two blowout losses against the Rangers and Capitals where they allowed a combined 11 goals, the Isles are only allowing 1.5 goals per contest, which puts them tied at first.
Goaltender Semyon Varlamov has played a Vezina-caliber season so far with a 93.6 save percent (second-best among goalies with five or more starts) and just 1.82 goals against average.
But the wheels do come off for the Islanders. Like their counterparts, the Rangers, special teams have been a suspect. Their power play and penalty kill both rank in the bottom-half of the league.
The Isles are also outplayed on five-on-five and have the fifth-worst corsi for percent (CF%) in the league. They lack the offensive talent to keep up if the games get out of hand. Center Matthew Barzal leads the team with seven points while D Noah Dobson has five, but they’ll need a more concerted effort from everyone else to win the tight matchups.
Flyers: Scoring Despite Everything Else
It’s not the amount of opportunities you get, it’s how you capitalize on them. That’s been the theme for the second-placed Flyers in the East Division. They are 5-2-1 and average the fifth-most goals per game (3.50) despite having the second-fewest shots per game (23.8).
But a lot of Philly’s statistical clout comes from their two blowouts against Pittsburgh. That’s where they scored 11 goals on just 47 shots. In their six games after, they’re only averaging 2.83 goals and were blown out 6-1 in two of these contests.
The Flyers have also been outplayed on even strength situations. They are averaging under 50 percent in fenwick for percent (FF%) in all eight games and averaging under 50 percent CF% in seven.
Philadelphia also owes their record to their goaltenders, namely backup Brian Elliott who has been stellar in his three appearances. But so long as they can keep maximizing their scoring opportunities and driving their 10th-ranked power play (26.9 percent), they’ll be fine.
Betting Preview: Islanders Sprout An Upset
By rule of thumb, you bet on the underdog from the online sportsbook in tight matchups like this. Sure, the Flyers have the better record currently and have looked unstoppable on offense. But they’re the B-side to the Islanders.
Both teams have different all-or-nothing styles. The Flyers either go out there and score their way to victory or they get shut down and lose. The Islanders either neutralize their team’s scoring or they get blown out. What they have in common is how much they’ve been outgained on 5-on-5 play. Both Philly and New York have spent more time in their own zone.
But the Isles’ edge comes from their goaltender, Varlamov, who has just been a bit more consistent than Carter Hart. The Flyers’ vulnerable penalty kill (70.4 percent) is also ripe for the occasionally challenged scoring of the Isles.
Islanders vs Flyers Pick
New York Islanders to win (+105)
Book the Isles for a minor upset here and while you’re at it, check out the sportsbook reviews to learn more on the many ways you can use the book for all your sports betting needs.
