Lightning Favored Once Again
There are few things in professional sports except perhaps the Tampa Bay Lightning being favored against the Buffalo Sabres. Buffalo is approaching 10 years since it has been favored in a game against Tampa Bay as it last took place on April 14, 2013. This will be the 34th straight meeting when the sportsbook lists Tampa Bay as the favorite.
The teams are headed in opposite directions. Buffalo was two points ahead of the Lightning heading into November. However, in this month Tampa Bay is 7-3-1 and Buffalo 3-9-0.
Tampa Bay is sixth in scoring and ninth in power-play success rate. Buffalo is tied for the second-most goals allowed during the month and is killing off only 68.4% of the opponent’s power plays.
Those who bet online might want to keep an eye on Nikita Kucherov as the Tampa Bay winger has 17 goals and 18 assists in 29 career games against Buffalo.
According to the NHL playoff odds, the Lightning (+1400) are tied for fifth in the odds to win the Stanley Cup championship, with Buffalo at +10000.
Paul Coming on Strong
Nick Paul had some success after being acquired by the Tampa Bay Lightning last season with five goals and 13 assists in 21 games. He added five goals and nine points in the playoffs.
It was a different story when the 2022-23 season began as he didn’t have a point in his first five games, and in six of the first seven. With three goals and an assist in the last two games, he is starting to heat up.
Killer scores, but this one’s all Nick Paul. 🔥
— Jeremiah Woodward (@Jpw03) November 26, 2022
Tampa Bay is 4-6 this season when Paul doesn’t have a point and 4-1 when he has at least two. He scored in the first game of the season against Buffalo after managing just one point in four games against Buffalo last season.
The Las Vegas odds exceeded in eight of Tampa Bay’s last 12 games.
Scoop on Free Play from the Locker Room
Power A Bright Spot
Buffalo has allowed eight more goals than it has scored at even strength during the month of November and that makes Owen Power’s defensive rating of +5 all the more impressive.
Among the Buffalo, players to appear in at least half of the games the Sabres played in November, the first overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft is the only player with a plus rating.
He has been on the ice for 16 goals scored at even strength, four more than any other Buffalo player, and 11 goals against.
The NHL betting lines total has gone over in 10 of Buffalo’s last 14 games.
Lightning vs Sabres Game Injuries
Lightning vs Sabres Head-to-Head
Nikita Kucherov had a goal and three assists to lead Tampa Bay to a 5-3 win in the first meeting of the year on Nov. 5.
It was Tampa Bay’s third win in a row against Buffalo with the Lightning outscoring the Sabres 16-4 during that stretch. Tampa Bay has won 10 of the last 11 meetings with seven of those games going over the total.
The last three games between the teams played in Buffalo had 23 goals scored.
Victor Olofsson and Vinnie Hinostroza led Buffalo with two goals against Tampa Bay last season. Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and Alex Killorn each had four points against the Sabres a season ago.
Lightning vs Sabres Game Information
- Game: Lightning (12-7-1) vs Sabres (9-12-0)
- Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo
- Day/Time: Monday, Nov. 28, 7 p.m. ET
- Lightning vs Sabres Live stream: NHL.TV
Lightning vs Sabres Betting Lines
Lightning vs Sabres Picks & Prediction
The teams are a combined 17-24 against the spread this season. The Lightning has covered in three of the nine road games while Buffalo is 5-7 at home against the Las Vegas odds.
Tampa Bay continues to play without center Anthony Cirelli as a result of a shoulder injury, but he could be nearing a return. Fellow forward Pierre-Edouard Bellemare is probable. Jacob Bryson, Buffalo’s third-leading scorer among defensemen, is out.
The teams combined for five power plays in the first meeting this season and Buffalo would be well advised to stay out of the penalty box once again, especially since Buffalo is just killing off 61% of power-play opportunities in its last seven home games.
With the history between the teams and how they are playing right now, look for Tampa Bay to win on the road once again.
Tampa Bay is listed at -175 in our Vegas NHL lines. This means that if you wager $100 on the Lightning, you have a chance to win $57. Buffalo is +155, offering a chance to win $155 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Tampa Bay a 63.64% chance to win, with the Sabres at 39.22%.