Maple Leafs vs Capitals Game Preview, Odds, Picks & Predictions

Big Night Won’t Hide Maple Leafs’ Biggest Issue

The Toronto Maple Leafs scored 10 – yes, 10! –  goals in Saturday’s victory over the Detroit Red Wings. After scoring just 11 in their previous four games, the Leafs kicked the monkey off their backs in a big way, though it wasn’t without plenty of flaws. Toronto nearly let the Red Wings come back by giving up seven goals, tied for the most they allowed this season.

In fact, Toronto has a worrying trend lately: goaltending. The Maple Leafs have given up four or more goals in four of their last five games. In their last 20 games, Toronto is giving up 3.6 goals per game, the eighth-most in this span. The team has the third-best penalty kill and is allowing the 10th-fewest shots per game.

However, Jack Campbell has had one too many off nights while Petr Mrazek has been terrible. Campbell is 6-3-2 in his 13 starts but only has a .876 save percentage and has allowed three or more goals in 10 of those games. As long as the goaltending stays poor, Toronto will need to score at least four goals to be worth betting online.

Capital Problems

The Washington Capitals are also having a rough experience in their past few games. In 2022, the Caps are just 8-11-2 with a .429 point percentage, making them one of the five worst teams in the conference in this span. Washington even lost to Philadelphia, which had just two wins in 2022, on Saturday.

Not sunny.#CapsFlyers pic.twitter.com/iw3v2JR5v3

— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) February 26, 2022

Unlike the Leafs, the issues with Washington can’t be blamed on just one position. Offense, defense, special teams, the shortcomings run the gamut for a team that has also had injuries. But there is no room for excuses as Washington faces an outside chance of missing the playoffs.

The Capitals have one of the hardest remaining schedules while Columbus has been making a run and is just 10 points behind Washington with one game in hand. Alexander Ovechkin can’t be the main source for goals as the superstar has slowed down considerably, scoring just eight in his last 19 games.

Maple Leafs at Capitals Head-to-Head

The Washington Capitals have an edge on the Toronto Maple Leafs in recent meetings. They are 7-3-0 in their last 10 games, although the Leafs have gained a point in six of these games. These franchises have not met since October 2019.

Maple Leafs at Capitals Prediction

Despite the goaltending woes with the Toronto Maple Leafs, this team is too potent offensively to not back. The Washington Capitals are sputtering right now and have seemingly lost their mojo. The Leafs have scored at least three goals in four of their last five meetings with the Capitals.

Five of the last seven meetings between Toronto and Washington have gone over, hence why the total is juiced on the online sportsbook. Bank on the Leafs to overcome Washington in a game that should see plenty of goals.

Parlay: Toronto Maple Leafs -135 and Over 6½ at +219

Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs -135

Pick: Over 6½ (Ev)