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Islanders Eye Upset of Lightning in Game 7

Kucherov Could Sit for Tampa Bay

The New York Islanders bounced back in a big way against the Tampa Bay Lightning with a 3-2 victory in overtime in Thursday’s Game 6 despite being underdogs. It was an emphatic come-from-behind win for New York as Tampa also lost leading scorer Nikita Kucherov. Now, all the momentum is on New York’s side.

Despite that, the Lightning enter Game 7 this Friday as the -165 betting online favorites. The defending Stanley Cup champions have not lost consecutive playoff games since getting swept by Columbus in 2018-19. But there is a first time for everything.

Scott Mayfield of the New York Islanders celebrates after scoring a goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning
Bruce Bennett/Getty Images/AFP

Islanders: Underdog Kings

It was quite the comeback for the New York Islanders, who were down 2-0 at the halfway mark of Game 6. But now the tide is turning to their favor and they look to cash in as another underdog after being successful in six of their past 10 games as one.

The Islanders outplayed Tampa Bay for the most part of Thursday’s game. They outshot them 24-18 on 5-on-5, and despite yielding more high-danger scoring chances, Semyon Varlamov stood tall and stopped most of them.

Most notably, New York blanked Tampa Bay’s power play when it mattered most. The Islanders have now stopped all four of the Lightning’s man advantages on their ice. But the challenge comes in stopping Tampa Bay at Amalie Arena, where the Isles give up over four power plays.

Lightning: With or Without You

The Lightning are not the same team without Kucherov. One does not simply lose its top scorer and function the same. But this is still a team that won 36 of its 56 games without him and averaged 22.2 percent on the power play.

The NHL lines don’t reflect it as Tampa Bay is an even bigger favorite now than last game, but if this team isn’t as deadly with the extra skater, we’ll know why. Kucherov had a hand in 17 of Tampa’s 20 power-play goals and 10 of center Brayden Point’s 14 goals.

But home ice means something for these Lightning, who are 21-7 at Amalie Arena. Andrei Vasilevskiy is still in net and has the most saves at home this postseason with 228 and a 92.3 save percentage (SV%). The Lightning’s offensive prowess may not be at its peak, but this team can find other means to victory.

Pick: Leveling Playing Ice

There is no love lost between these teams though that may not show here. Both Tampa Bay and New York will do their best to stick to their game plans and play within their character. The Islanders may draw more penalties on the road than at home, but the loss of Kucherov can help them mitigate the Lightning’s power play.

It comes down to which team has the edge on 5-on-5. That goes slightly to the Islanders. They have the edge in expected goals for percent (xGF%) and high-danger chances. But the Lightning’s ace up their sleeve is Vasilevskiy.

The Russian will be the front-runner for the Conn Smythe Trophy if he can stonewall New York here as he has 92.6 percent of the time on even strength. Tampa Bay should win, but this game is closer to a 50-50 than the odds indicate so the betting pick is New York with the condition that Kucherov sits.

Pick: New York Islanders +145

Bonus Pick: First Come, First Serve

It all comes down to which team can nab the first goal. Last game was an aberration as Tampa Bay did lose Kucherov. But even without him, the Lightning are 14-1 at home when scoring first while New York was 3-15 as visitors when giving up the first goal during the regular season. There won’t be a comeback here.

Pick: Team Scoring First Wins – Yes (-250)

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