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NHL Parlay: Toasty Totals – Bet Highest-Scoring Games, Nov. 9

· Nov 09 - 4 minutes read

In this week’s edition of “Toasty Totals” we’ll focus on the “power” part of power play. A few matchups in this packed Thursday night feature teams who either score a lot of PP goals or get scored on with a man down. The odds for NHL today have totals from six to 6½, though we will likely get 7+ goals in these high-scoring duels. They’re worth putting on a three-leg parlay.

Best NHL Lines to Parlay on Nov. 9

Montreal-Detroit Could Be a Barnburner

We don’t often say that a total of 6½ is too low. But Detroit and Montreal, given their proclivity for scoring, should have NHL lines at seven goals or more. Detroit averages nearly 3.7 goals per game with a 25% power play efficiency (PP%). Montreal averages nearly three goals a game and 20% of their PPs ending with one.

NHL Parlay: Toasty Totals – Bet Highest-Scoring Games, Nov. 9 — Alex Newhook #15 of the Montreal Canadiens - Claus Andersen/Getty Images/afp

Now here’s the kicker: these teams average the most PP opportunities per game. Detroit and Montreal combine to average over four PPs a game. Montreal also gets penalized often with at least four or five penalty kills (PK) per game. With only a 73.6% penalty kill percentage, a third of its 3.5 goals allowed per game have come on the PK.

You know what this means. A back-and-forth high-scoring tilt between these young and offensive-minded teams. Thus, betting ‘over’ on the total is one of the best NHL hockey bets today.

NHL Pick: Canadiens, Red Wings Over 6½ (-115)

Kraken, Avalanche Ignite on the Ice

The total has gone under in these teams’ last six meetings. But we’re betting online against the trend if we go by the analytics. Seattle and Colorado have some defensive weaknesses that could lead to goals getting scored. That’s why we’ve seen Seattle average nearly 3.4 goals against per game, while Colorado has allowed three or more goals in six of its last seven games.

Seattle has some lopsided special teams. It has a 26.3% power play percentage but only a 70.3% penalty kill percentage. A quarter of the goals it has allowed came with a man down. And while Colorado’s PP is only at 18.6%, this team averages nearly four PPs per game.

Nate Dogg 🪄#GoAvsGo pic.twitter.com/VX8xwtqSNY

— Colorado Avalanche (@Avalanche) November 8, 2023

On the flip side, Colorado’s goaltenders are “mid” on 5-on-5: 25th in SV%. The team will give up goals on even strength. So we can expect two to four goals to come on special teams. And given the potent 5-on-5 play, another 3+ on even strength.

NHL Pick: Kraken, Avalanche Over 6 (-130)

Oilers or Sharks Will Drown in Goals

Edmonton and San Jose are terrible for different reasons, and it’s why this is a good NHL pick to go over its total. For the Edmonton, their goaltending stinks. The Oilers are dead-last in the NHL with an 86.1% save percentage and -13.7 goals saved above average. Their PK is also awful at 68.9%. The Sharks, on the other hand, are just brutal on defense.

San Jose consistently lets teams create scoring chances against it. In 12 games, the Sharks have given up 348 scoring chances on 5-on-5, 123 of which are high-danger chances. That’s over 10 prime scoring opportunities per game. No wonder it allowed double-digit goals in consecutive games.

These teams lead the NHL in goals allowed per game with a whopping 8.9 if you add them. We don’t need nine goals here. Eight will cash the ‘over’.