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Take Toronto as an Underdog when Facing Edmonton

Canadian superpowers clash on Saturday when the Toronto Maple Leafs play host to the Edmonton Oilers. These contenders have short Stanley Cup odds and have two of the best players in Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. However, the Leafs’ injuries make them the underdogs per the latest NHL lines. Losing star forward Mitch Marner is a blow for Toronto. But we still like it to pull it off given the odds.


Take Toronto as an Underdog when Facing Edmonton
Take Toronto as an Underdog when Facing Edmonton

Game Information

  • Game: Oilers (42-21-4) vs Maple Leafs (39-20-9)
  • Date/Time: March 23, 7 p.m. ET
  • Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
  • Oilers vs Maple Leafs Live Stream: NHL.com


We like Toronto at +110 on the NHL’s Vegas odds. The Maple Leafs are 2-2 in their last four games as an underdog and have done okay without Marner. Edmonton has been on a tear but is 3-7 (3-6-1) in their last 10 meetings against Toronto. The total is set at 6½ and favored to go over (-115) given these teams’ potent offenses.

Oilers vs Maple Leafs Odds and Spreads



  • Toronto is 3-2 in its last five games when playing without F Mitch Marner
  • Edmonton is 1-4 in its last five games when playing in Toronto
  • The Maple Leafs are 11-4 at home when playing teams from the Western Conference
  • The Oilers are 7-7 when playing on the road against Eastern Conference opponents
  • The total has gone under in Edmonton’s last five road games
  • The ‘under’ is 4-3-1 in the Maple Leafs’ last eight games as an underdog
  • The total has gone under in eight of the Oilers’ last 11 games against Atlantic Division opponents
  • Maple Leafs F Auston Matthews has nine points in his last five games

Moneyline Pick: Toronto (+110)

Given the Maple Leafs’ long injury list, we understand the sportsbook’s line. Losing half your blue line plus your second-best forward is nothing to sneeze at. But this is a resilient group that knows how to neutralize Edmonton’s typically explosive offense.

Toronto has held to Edmonton to an average of 2.3 goals in their last 10 meetings. The Oilers’ power play (PP) has gone just 2-of-17 (11.8%). On the flip side, Toronto has gone 9-of-27 on its own PP. This has been the Leafs’ edge against the Oilers, especially with Edmonton ranked 25th in penalty killing as a visitor (75.4%).

Even without Marner, the Leafs can exploit this weakness from Edmonton. And even if they can’t, the Leafs can still keep the Oilers on a lid. Given the odds, Toronto is our NHL pick to edge Edmonton in a low-scoring matchup.



Over/Under Pick: Under 6½ (-105)

The “under” has gone 5-3-2 in these teams’ last 10 matchups. Edmonton can’t quite crack the Leafs’ defense. Even the great McDavid has been held to one point or none in six of his last nine games against Toronto. Bet online on the under.



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Game Prediction

Predicted Score: Maple Leafs 3, Oilers 2



Questions of the Day

Which over/under line has the better value in Edmonton-Toronto?

With a betting line at near-even odds, betting ‘under’ 6½ goals on the total has the better value.

Which team is the better bet to score more power play goals?

Given recent meetings, Toronto has outscored Edmonton on special teams and could do so again.

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