They may be underdogs heading to Saturday’s game, but the Tampa Bay Lightning have had the Boston Bruins’ numbers in recent seasons. The Lightning (13-5-4) have won eight of their last ten meetings against the Bruins (12-8-0). This includes eliminating them from 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
But the NHL odds are leaning on the hometown Bruins. Tampa isn’t too shabby on the road (5-2-2) but has not won as an underdog this season (0-3-2). With Boston slumping at home, Tampa Bay has an opportunity to extend its dominance over its conference rivals.
NHL Odds Preview
Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins (7 p.m. ET, BSUN)
- Puckline: Tampa Bay +1½ (-235), Boston -1½ (+200)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +105, Boston -120
- Total: Over 5½ (+110), Under 5½ (-125)
Team Previews
Lightning: New Child Energy
Team captain and leading scorer Steven Stamkos rejoined the Lightning as they defeated the St. Louis Blues in their home-and-home series. He tallied an assist and extended his point streak to five games straight. The Lightning could use some of his mythical “new child energy”.
The former 60-goal scorer is having an MVP-caliber season. The team’s shooting percent is ats peak (16.7%) when he’s on the ice and the Lightning are 8-0-2 when he scores a goal and 11-2-2 when he tallies a point.
Without Brayden Point (Upper body) and Nikita Kucherov (lower body), the heavy lifting is on Stamkos. He’s getting plenty of help from Andrei Vasilevskiy in net plus some of the best two-way players and defenders.
Bruins: Keep Grinding
The Bruins have alternated wins and losses in their last seven games and if this trend continues, bet online on them to lose. Facetiousness aside, Boston handled business against Nashville without their best player in Brad Marchand (suspension). It was the team’s first shutout for the season.
Brad Marchand watching this game on TV: pic.twitter.com/NEvOcv4pd5
— Conor Ryan (@ConorRyan_93) December 3, 2021
Boston’s defense has been their key this season. They have allowed two or fewer goals in seven of their last ten games. Those three teams that bucked the trend: Carolina, Edmonton, and the Rangers, top-eight teams in the NHL and some of the best offenses.
Only the elites can break through Boston, which is allowing just 2.6 goals per game (7th). If they had a bit more pop in their 5v5 scoring, this team would be up there in goal differential. But at least they have a productive power play and generally outplay and outchance opponents. Keep grinding.
Betting Pick
The line is a little off. Yes, Boston is at home and is one of the best home teams by outshooting opponents by nearly ten shots in the TD Garden. But the Bruins have a tough time scoring hence why they’ve lost four of their last six. Tampa has a higher offensive ceiling and a better goaltender. Vasilevskiy went 3-1-0 with a 92.8% save percent against Boston two seasons ago.
The Bruins’ rugged and grinding style may work on most teams, but Tampa has the depth and veteran experience to manage them. Find the Lightning on the sportsbook while they’re at even money or better. The Lightning have outscored the Bruins 35-22 in their last ten meetings despite being outshot.
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning +105
Bonus Pick
These Stanley Cup contenders are big on defense hence why six of their last nine games have gone under the total. The average goals between these teams is exactly 5.5 when they play. But we have to factor in Tampa’s less prolific offense this season along with Boston’s terrible scoring chance shooting percent. Go under.
