Gambler’s Fallacy: What Is It?
Probability Is a Hater 😒
Ah, the ol’ gambler’s fallacy. Even the most rational, level-headed of us have fallen victim to this little glitch of the human mind. Whether you’re guessing the gender of your friend’s baby or convinced you’re due for a win after a brutal losing streak, we’ve all been there.
What’s the Gambler’s Fallacy?
So, what exactly is the gambler’s fallacy? According to the American Psychological Association, it’s “a failure to recognize the independence of chance events, leading to the mistaken belief that one can predict the outcome of a chance event on the basis of the outcomes of past chance events.” In simpler terms, it’s a cognitive glitch that makes us think randomness follows a pattern—when in reality, probability doesn’t work that way.
The gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that if something has happened multiple times in the past, it’s less likely to happen in the future—or vice versa. But in games of pure chance, each event is independent. Annoying, I know.
Why Does it Happen?
Sooo, why does the gambler’s fallacy happen? Well, it actually stems from an evolutionary advantage—our brain’s ability to recognize patterns and find regularities in the world. Similar to the phenomenon of seeing human faces in inanimate objects or vague stimuli that aren’t actually there (Pareidolia), except with GF, we’re seeing outcomes in events.
Humans aren’t naturally wired to understand randomness at a deep, mathematical level. Instead of making rational, statistical inferences, we rely on casual connections—seeing meaning where there isn’t any. Basically, if you have 20 crappy Hinge dates, you’re not about to find your soulmate on your 21st.
— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) December 14, 2024
How Does It Affect Our Brain?
That’s why a streak of red on a roulette wheel feels like black is “due,” even though each spin is completely independent. Our brain wants order, but chance doesn’t play by those rules. Hence why retired NFL player Jason Kelce is on his fourth daughter— he and his lovely wife weren’t “due” for a boy, they just randomly got another girl because that’s how chance works.
And yes, I, too, have been beady-eyed and sweaty at the roulette table, succumbing to the gambler’s fallacy, thinking I’d end up a millionaire in casino news—even with a background in psychology and full awareness of this human tendency.
Sometimes, you just let the fallacy take over without a second thought. Honestly, it’s impossible to eliminate all of our cognitive biases 100% of the time. But even though we’ll probably never operate completely free of them, we can become more aware of when they’re happening.
Friendly reminder to NFL bettors…
Just because road favorites went 8-0 yesterday doesn’t mean the home underdog is “due” tonight
That’s called “the gambler’s fallacy”
— Jared Smith (@jaredsmithbets) October 14, 2024
One simple strategy? Remind yourself—daily, if needed—that independent events do not influence each other. The odds remain the same for each individual spin, roll, or shuffle. Now, take your new knowledge and check out the online legit casino, where you can play blackjack for money or try another virtual casino game. But remember: A losing streak doesn’t mean you’re about to make it rain.
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