Understanding Natural 8 and Natural 9 Baccarat Side Bets
Over 50 years ago, a mathematician and gaming expert, Edward Thorp, wrote strategies for the Natural 8 and Natural 9 baccarat side bets. These longstanding wagers are mainstays in the game of baccarat, and you’ll find them in both online, offline, and live dealer variants (see our guide on virtual vs live dealer baccarat to learn the differences). But how do they work, what are their odds and payouts, and can you beat them consistently using baccarat strategy?
What is A Natural 9 in Baccarat?
Also known as “NAT9”, the natural nine baccarat bet is a wager that the Player or Banker hand will be a natural 9. This means that the first two cards equal a score of nine. As the winner of the hand is the one that gets closest to 9, it’s the best possible score in the game, akin to a 21 in a game of blackjack.
What is A Natural 8 in Baccarat?
A natural 8 is an opening hand that totals 8. It is beaten by a natural 9, but beats everything else, so it’s still a powerful hand.
Natural Eight and Natural Nine Baccarat Side Bets
Technically, the natural 8/9 side bet is four different side bets, as you can wager on the following options:
- The Dealer’s hand is a natural 9
- The Player’s hand is a natural 9
- The Dealer’s hand is a natural 8
- The Player’s hand is a natural 8
The wager typically pays 8:1 or 9:1. So, if you bet $10 and are successful, you will receive a profit of either $80 or $90, along with your initial $10 stake.
Why the Payout is Important for the Natural 8 and Natural 9 Baccarat Side Bet
The difference between 8:1 and 9:1 seems infinitesimal. On the surface, it looks like it wouldn’t make a difference, and the prospect of playing for 8:1 payouts is unlikely to send the average baccarat novice scrambling for a better option.
But it should.
The average house edge for an 8:1 payout is around 14.5%, which falls to just over 5% for 9:1 payouts. Nothing else has changed, but as advantages are calculated over many plays, the fact that you’re getting less money every time you win shifts the edge in the casino’s favor.
Of course, 5% is still a high edge when you consider that the Banker bet has an edge of 1.06%, and the Player is only slightly higher at 1.24%.
Can You Beat the Natural 8/9 Side Bet?
At the top of this article, we mentioned that Edward Thorp wrote strategies about this side bet. It was long ago, but his strategy should still apply if you find the right game.
One of the strategies he recommended was to count 9s and other cards. So, if a 9 appears, you subtract 12; if another card appears, add one. When the count is above 7, it means there is a higher chance of a 9 appearing, so you would then bet on both of the natural 9 side bets (the Player and the Banker).
You can run the same strategy on a natural 8, subtracting 12 when you see an 8 and adding one for all other cards.
If you stick with this strategy and don’t make any other bets, you should get a consistent return in the long run. It’s not perfect, though, and it can’t be used in all variations of the game. For instance, if you play online baccarat, the decks are often “shuffled” after each hand, so card-counting strategies are ineffective.
Conclusion: Play Baccarat with Natural 8 and 9 Side Bets
The Natural 8 and 9 baccarat side bets are a fun way to inject some variance into this popular card game. Using Thorp’s strategy, you could earn a consistent profit.
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Table Games Common Queries
What is a natural winner in baccarat?
A natural winning hand is one that scores 8 or 9, with the latter beating the former.
What is a 9 worth in baccarat?
All cards from 2 to 9 are worth their face value, so the 9 scores nine points. If you have a NAT9 side bet on the winning hand (Banker or Player), you will receive a payout of 8:1 or 9:1.
What is a natural 9 in baccarat?
A natural 9 is an opening hand that scores 9, such as a 4 and 5 or a 3 and 6.
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