2024 Electoral College Betting: What You Need to Know
- Betting on electoral college winners is available at our BetUS sportsbook.
- We look at what markets are available and how electoral college betting differs from other election betting markets.
- We also have an update on the latest Harris vs Trump betting odds.
Electoral college betting is available for every jurisdiction, which means a plethora of markets for bettors to enjoy before the votes are counted in the US presidential election.
An often confusing concept, which is disagreed with by the large majority of Democrats and 48% of Republicans, the electoral college decides who wins the election, so Donald Trump could lose the popular vote but win the election based on the electoral college system.
It’s controversial, but it’s the way the presidential election is decided and bettors can make money betting on the outcome with 2024 presidential election betting.
2024 Electoral College Betting Guide
What is the Electoral College?
The Electoral College is a process used in the United States to elect the president. Instead of directly using the national popular vote, each state is assigned a number of “electors” based on its population (totaling 538).
During presidential elections, voters in each state cast ballots, but they’re actually voting for electors pledged to a candidate. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win.
Most states use a “winner-takes-all” system, where the candidate with the most votes in a state receives all its electoral votes, making the Electoral College a key focus in US elections.
It has been widely criticized, especially when elected Presidents don’t win the popular vote. However, it’s there to avoid one state being massively lopsided, which could influence the election more than any other state.
Swing states often have the most electoral candidates, which is why they’re important to win, and swing state betting is available with Electoral College betting.
How Electoral College System Impacts Election Betting
The Electoral College system significantly impacts election betting because it shapes the election betting odds and strategies by making certain states pivotal in determining the election outcome.
Unlike a popular vote system where the candidate with the most votes wins, the Electoral College system means each state has a certain number of electoral votes based on its congressional representation.
This creates “swing states” – like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan – where the outcome is often uncertain and can sway the entire election, and that has an effect on the next President odds.
In election betting, these swing states attract significant attention because their results can determine the overall winner. Understanding that a candidate can lose the popular vote but still win the election through the Electoral College is important. Consequently, betting strategies often involve analyzing the probability of a candidate winning key swing states, rather than just national trends.
For 2024 election betting, markets are available for every state, so there is something for everyone to enjoy. Republicans are heavily favored in states that usually go their way, and Democrats are favored in so-called blue states. There is the occasional upset, especially in the swing states, but many states have a firm favorite based on historical results.
Winning states that have the most Electoral College votes is important. Winning small states doesn’t have the same effect as losing the likes of Pennsylvania and Texas.
2024 Electoral College Betting Odds
There are loads of Electoral College betting markets for the 2024 election, including odds for every state and whether the Electoral College winner will lose the popular vote.
“Yes” is currently trading at even-money odds with our BetUS sportsbook, which is the best bet. Trump is expected to win the Electoral College and become the next US President, but he’s expected to lose the popular vote, as he did when winning the presidency in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
The Electoral College allows the winner to receive less overall votes but become President, and this is evident with Electoral College betting markets. Trump firmed into –210 odds over the last 24 hours, but he’s expected to lose the popular vote by a considerable margin to Harris.
There are Electoral College vote winner markets for all the big states. There are also handicap markets available for bettors to enjoy.
For example: Trump is a -29½ Electoral College votes favorite at -125, but you can also bet on bigger margins for better odds. He’s a +200 underdog to win by 64½ votes, with Harris paying -300 to cover the spread.
Which States are Most Crucial for Electoral College?
To secure the Electoral College, certain “swing states” or “battleground states” are often crucial because they have large numbers of electoral votes and are known for having close, unpredictable election results.
Historically, these states have shifted between Democratic and Republican wins, making them key targets for both parties. Here are some of the most critical ones:
- Pennsylvania – With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania has been a pivotal state in recent elections. Its diverse electorate, especially in suburban and urban areas, often reflects national trends.
- Michigan – Holding 15 electoral votes, Michigan is a key swing state, with its urban areas (like Detroit) typically leaning Democratic and its rural areas leaning Republican.
- Wisconsin – With 10 electoral votes, Wisconsin has been a battleground in recent elections. Shifts in suburban and rural voting patterns have made it very competitive.
- Georgia – Georgia’s 16 electoral votes have gained attention as it shifted to blue in 2020 for the first time in decades. With a rapidly diversifying population, Georgia has become a crucial state.
- Arizona – Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, has transitioned from a reliably Republican state to a competitive one, partly due to population growth and demographic shifts.
- Florida – With 30 electoral votes, Florida is one of the largest and most competitive swing states. The Republican Party is a -1600 favorite in Electoral College lines.
- North Carolina – North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes make it important, and the state’s political landscape is marked by close races, with a mix of urban and rural voting dynamics.
- Nevada – Nevada, with 6 electoral votes, has been reliably Democratic in recent elections but remains competitive, particularly because of economic issues and a growing Hispanic population.
How Have Previous Elections Affected Electoral College Betting?
Bettors are able to look at past results to decide which candidate is best to back with Electoral College odds.
Most states are won by the same party as the previous election, unless it’s a close swing state, which could go either way. This is shown in 2024 election betting odds, with the close states showing Trump and Harris at similar odds.
For states that are highly likely to be decided before a vote is placed, the candidates’ odds will be significantly short. It would be rare to see an upset in these Democratic or Republican-dominated states, which is why the odds are one-sided.
Past election results are a great guide, especially with the 2016 election, and bettors can see which states Trump won, and back him accordingly in online betting for 2024.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Questions of the Day
Who is the favorite to win the 2024 Presidential election?
Donald Trump is the -210 favorite to serve a second term as US President. Kamala Harris is the underdog at +175.
What politics betting markets are available?
BetUS has markets on Electoral College winners for the biggest states, including the important swing states.
