Betting Odds Presidential Election: Latest 2024 Predictions and Current Polls
The latest betting odds for the presidential election are starting to tilt toward Vice President Kamala Harris after former President Donald Trump was in the lead for nearly a month as polls indicate a practically tied race between the two candidates. According to the latest election betting odds, Trump now enjoys a -145 moneyline odds lead over Harris, who is listed at +125. Trump had held the lead since the start of October and was up double-digits over Harris as late as last week when he had a 66.67% probability of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, while Harris had a dismal 37.04% chance. In contrast, Trump’s likelihood of winning at the dawn of Election Day eve has dipped to 59.18%, and Harris’s odds shortened to 44.44%.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Monday, Nov. 4, 2024.
Betting Odds Presidential Election: Latest 2024 Predictions & Current Polls
The monster presidential betting odds shift comes after a week of cleanup from the Trump campaign that platformed a comedian who called Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage” at the start of a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden and several prominent endorsements for Harris that included Beyonce and LeBron—last week also ended with a shock poll released by the Des Moines Register which showed Harris ahead by 3 points amongst likely voters in Iowa, though within the poll’s margin of error. The poll rocked Trump and his campaign as Iowa has been considered a safe Republican stronghold.
Harris or Trump? Who Is Leading the Current Polls?
ABC News project 538 shows Vice President Harris edging out former President Trump in the national polls—47.9% to 47%. That’s a razor-thin margin of just 0.7%, slimmer than ever this week. Last week? Harris was at 48.1% over Trump’s 46.7%. Two weeks ago, she held 48.2% against his 46.4%. Three weeks back, it was 48.5% to 46.1%. See the pattern? Harris’s lead has been inching downward. The gap is closing, and it’s closing fast.
Men and women have been voting differently in presidential elections for decades.
But could the gender gap be the deciding factor in this year’s razor-thin race between Vice Pres. Kamala Harris and former Pres. Trump? https://t.co/bVW55TKngH
— ABC News (@ABC) November 4, 2024
Switch over to 270toWin, and the story takes another twist. Harris leads by just 1% this week, up from a mere 0.7% over Trump last week. Two weeks ago, she was ahead by 1.8%. Three weeks ago? A solid 2.5%. Four weeks back, her lead was 2.8%, and five weeks ago, she was sitting pretty with a 3.7% advantage. But hold on—six weeks ago, her lead shrank to 3%, then to 2.5% seven weeks ago. Eight weeks back, it dipped to 0.9%, shot up to 2.7% nine weeks ago, and rested at 1.9% ten weeks ago. It’s a rollercoaster ride, and we’re all strapped in whether we like it or not.
RealClearPolling shows the tide turning in Trump’s favor for the second straight week, with a spread of +0.1 over Harris. That’s a flip from two weeks ago when Harris was favored with a +0.9 spread. Three weeks ago, she led by +1.4. Four weeks back? A dead heat. Five weeks ago, Harris was up by +1.8, and six weeks ago, she enjoyed a +2.3 advantage. Seven weeks ago, the spread was +2 in her favor, then +1.1 eight weeks back, +1.8 nine weeks ago, and +1.7 ten weeks ago. The momentum has shifted, and it’s anybody’s game now.
2024 Pennsylvania: InsiderAdvantage
🟥Trump 49%
🟦Harris 48%RCP Avg: Trump +0.3
Pennsylvania – 2 Days to Election:
2020: Biden +4.3
2016: Clinton +2.8More:https://t.co/ki7M8EN73O#poll #politics #election2024 #Trump #Harris #vote #polling #Pennsylvania
— RealClearPolling (@RCPolling) November 4, 2024
2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Allan Lichtman vs. Nate Silver
Now that you know what the latest election polls and current presidential odds are saying, let’s take a closer look at how two of the nation’s leading election prognosticators, Allan Lichtman and Nate Silver, are predicting the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.
Allan Lichtman, a respected professor at American University, has a track record that’s hard to ignore. He’s correctly predicted nine out of the last ten presidential elections. His call for 2024? A win for Vice President Kamala Harris.
On the flip side, we’ve got Nate Silver, the statistician and pollster who founded FiveThirtyEight. He recently wrote in The New York Times that the race is virtually neck and neck, but his gut tells him former President Donald Trump might just prevail.
Lichtman’s approach is as unique as it is intriguing. Over three decades ago, he teamed up with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a Moscow-based earthquake specialist and mathematician, to devise his prediction system. Dubbed the “13 Keys to the White House,” it hinges on thirteen true-or-false statements rooted in historical analysis about the state of the country, the parties, and the candidates.
The Des Moines Register poll, historically the most accurate survey for Iowa and the Midwest now has Harris ahead by 3 points. We know that early polls don’t matter, but we are 2 days out. Plus, swings in the polls matter more than the polls themselves. That is a 7 point swing in…
— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) November 3, 2024
These keys pose questions like whether there’s a third-party challenger if the incumbent party is avoiding a primary contest, and whether either candidate is charismatic. The method doesn’t fuss over campaign messaging or major events like debates that might sway voter sentiment. Lichtman often makes his assessment several months before the election and only revises it if major foreign policy events occur.
The rule of thumb? When six or more of the statements are true, the challenging party is expected to win. Five or fewer, and the incumbent party holds onto power. In 2024, Lichtman says at least eight of the keys favor Harris.
Silver, however, plays a different ball game. He builds probabilistic statistical models based on national and state polling, economic data points, likely voter turnout, and other factors. His model adjusts for discrepancies in the polls it aggregates, weighting more heavily the pollsters he considers more reliable.
Morning model update.
NYT swing state polls good for Harris but not great.
Morning Consult swing state polls good for Trump but not great.
It’s a pure toss-up. All the numbers at the link.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/N5Sc4RiBYN
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2024
Lichtman’s batting average is impressive—nine out of ten ain’t bad. The one he got wrong? The nail-biter in 2000 when George W. Bush beat Al Gore. Silver, on the other hand, gained national recognition in 2008 when his statistical model correctly forecast the presidential election outcome in 49 of the 50 states. He nailed it again in 2012 and 2020. During the 2016 election, while most experts gave Trump slim to none odds, Silver’s model suggested a 30% chance of victory for him—much higher than the rest.
So, who’s got the edge? Is it Lichtman’s historically rooted “13 Keys” pointing to a Harris victory, or Silver’s data-driven gut feeling favoring Trump? The race is the tightest in history, and the experts are split right down the middle.
Final Thoughts
Trump’s month-long lead in the betting odds has been chipped away, while Harris rides a wave of high-profile endorsements and favorable national polls that have her edging out her opponent, but only by her hair. And while the pundits, pollsters, and prognosticators each stake their claim on the likely outcome, the truth is that no one can say for sure who’s got this locked down.
Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys” hint at a Harris victory, rooted in historical trends that have held up for nearly every election he’s called. But Nate Silver, with his statistically fine-tuned model, sees a much closer call—one where Trump might just inch out on top if his recent surge can hold. Both have stellar track records and unique perspectives on how to read this ever-changing political landscape and if you’re feeling the thrill, there’s no better time to get in on the action.
