Trump vs. Kamala Election Day Presidential Betting Odds
The polls will close later today, and the presidential betting odds firmly favor former President Donald Trump to secure his second term in the White House. Trump is listed at -175 moneyline odds, which translates to a 63.64% probability. A win by Vice-President Kamala Harris is listed at +150 odds or a 40% chance.
Polling data suggests that Harris and Trump are neck and neck heading into Election Day, with only the slimmest of margins dividing them. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast has Harris holding a 50% to 49% edge, while Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin—an analysis powerhouse in its own right—gives her an even narrower lead of 50.02% to Trump’s 49.99%. It’s close, maybe as close as it gets, and that thin line has sparked a heated debate on whether presidential betting odds or traditional poll-based models paint the truer picture.
Election Day Presidential Betting Odds: Trump vs Harris
With over 77.3 million votes already cast in early and absentee ballots nationwide, election polls are making one thing clear: this race is tight, and it’s staying that way right down to the wire.
As of Monday, the FiveThirtyEight averages showed Harris ahead by a slim 1% in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump held similar 1% edges in North Carolina and Georgia, with a slightly larger 2% lead in Arizona. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania and Nevada? A dead heat. Poll after poll is coming in right within the margin of error, making it anyone’s guess—and for bettors, that’s where the opportunity lies.
Some argue that election betting markets, where wagers are backed by actual money, offer a sharper forecast—after all, folks betting on politics put their cash behind their predictions, meaning they’re more likely to back the candidate they truly believe will win. But skeptics have their own take, suggesting the odds might be leaning toward Trump due to a potentially pro-Trump demographic among bettors, one that could skew the numbers more in his favor.
Whatever the case, the disparity between betting odds and polling is giving both camps plenty to chew on. With Election Day here, this clash of models could be a deciding factor for anyone eager to place their bets on who’ll take the White House.
It’s published.
We ran 80,000 simulations tonight.
Harris won in 40,012.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2024
Presidential Odds or Election Polls? Which Has Been Right in Past Presidential Elections?
Since 1868, the betting favorite in U.S. presidential elections has only lost twice—a record with a near-mythic aura. From that year onward, the clear betting favorite didn’t fall until 1948, when Harry S. Truman, the 8-to-1 longshot and sitting president, pulled off a shocking upset over Republican Thomas E. Dewey.
Then came 2016, another monumental exception. Hillary Clinton, considered a virtual lock with betting odds around 7-to-2 (translating to a roughly 78% win probability), opened as the favorite on Election Day—only to lose the electoral college to Donald Trump. That year, Trump didn’t just defy the odds; he shattered the “wisdom of the crowd” held by betting markets and polling experts alike. He managed to translate a nearly 3-million-vote deficit in the popular vote into a razor-thin 77-vote win in the electoral college. In a twist for the ages, it wasn’t just the polls or crowd consensus that were bested, but the betting markets themselves—a reminder of the quirks and mysteries of the U.S. electoral system.
Polling, however, has had its own roller-coaster ride. Unlike betting markets, which aggregate wagers into a kind of crowd-sourced prediction, polling methods have their limitations. Different pollsters with different samples yield varied results, and it’s no secret that public faith in polling took a hit after the misses of 2016 and 2020. In both elections, the polls significantly underestimated Trump’s appeal—a miscalculation that left voters and bettors alike wondering just how much weight to give polling predictions.
Final Thoughts
The 2024 Presidential Election will go down in history as the most voted and contested. With Trump currently holding the edge at -175 odds and Harris close behind at +150, there’s no denying that election betting has joined the Super Bowl and March Madness as the most bet events of the year.
As we’ve seen in past elections, betting odds and polling data can both falter. Betting odds, influenced by real dollars and the confidence of those placing bets, aren’t immune to bias, just as polls aren’t shielded from methodological blind spots. In 2016, the favorite lost, shaking confidence in the “wisdom of the crowd.” And this year, with the odds leaning toward Trump and the polls offering no clear consensus, the tension between moneyline wagers and poll numbers could very well define the night’s narrative.
For those betting, the opportunity is clear: this race has just enough uncertainty to make for a high-stakes wager yet enough data to dive into confidently. So, as we count down the last ballots and wait for the numbers to trickle in, one thing is certain—whether it’s Trump or Harris who takes the White House, Election Day 2024 will be one for the record books.
