US Presidential Betting Odds: Trump vs Harris at the Sportsbook
The US Presidential betting odds have former U.S. President Donald Trump favored at -150 (risk $150 to win $100) to beat Vice President Kamala Harris, who is listed at +130 (risk $100 to win $130) in the November 5th election.
However, the US Presidential election polls tell a different story, showing a close race between Trump and Harris. The current vice president has an edge in most national polls but most swing state polls point to Trump winning the key battleground states. Most national polls show Harris with a strong chance of winning the 2024 election.
Presidential Betting Odds Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
With 35 of the 50 states voting for the same political party from 2000 all the way to 2020, the next US President will undoubtedly be decided by a handful of swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Trump is the betting favorite to win Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. Harris is the betting favorite to win Nevada. Michigan is a tie.
This is what the odds look like to win the swing states:
- Arizona: Harris +160, Trump -240
- Georgia: Harris +150, Trump -200
- Michigan: Harris -120, Trump -120
- Pennsylvania: Harris -105, Trump -135
- Wisconsin: Harris -115, Trump -125
- Nevada: Harris -130, Trump -110
- North Carolina: Harris +150, Trump -200
These US Presidential betting odds in the swing states imply that Trump would win at least five of the seven states taking a total of 72 electoral college votes represented by the six states above. Harris would win two states and secure 21 of the 87 electoral college votes.
Trump vs. Harris Presidential Betting Odds vs. Polls
At -150 Trump has a 60% shot at winning the US Presidential election, while Harris, listed at +130, has a 43.48% chance of being elected the first woman president of the USA. Fortunes for the former president have shifted from just a month ago when he was the +110 underdog and Harris was the US Presidential betting favorite at -140.
Recent polls indicate the race is tighter than the US Presidential betting markets currently show, with momentum favoring Trump. Just last month, an ABC/Ipsos poll of likely voters showed Harris with a six-point lead over Trump. Now that gap is down to 2 points, with 50% support for Harris to 48% for Trump. A CBS/YouGov poll shows Harris up 51% to 48%, down 1 point from a four-point lead last month. And NBC’s poll of registered voters has both candidates locked in a tie with both at 48%.
What’s Next for Trump and Harris?
Both candidates are expected to go all out in the final weeks before Election Day. Recently, Trump has been boosted by Elon Musk, with the Tesla and X head honcho scheduled to give “a series of talks” in Pennsylvania less than two weeks after he made a high-profile appearance with the Republican candidate there. If that wasn’t enough, federal disclosures show Musk reportedly donated approximately $75 million to his pro-Donald Trump spending group, America PAC, in the span of three months.
Harris is no slouch herself with her campaign pulling in over $1 billion in fundraising since becoming her party’s presidential nominee in July, according to multiple reports. Harris will be on Fox News for an interview with Bret Baier. Rumors also point to both candidates making an appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast.
Historically, the US Presidential betting odds have correctly predicted all but two of the election winners since 1866. The most recent upset came in 2016 when Trump was the longshot to beat then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The other upset came in 1948 when Democrat Harry Truman beat eight-to-one odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey.
When Is Election Day?
For everyone thinking about putting money down on the US Presidential betting odds, Election Day 2024 is Tuesday, Nov. 5. That is also the last day to receive a ballot by mail.
The last day to apply for a ballot by mail (received, not postmarked) is Friday, Oct. 25th. Early voting ends on Friday, Nov. 1st.
Inauguration Day for the President-Elect is set for Monday, Jan. 20th.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
