Betting Odds or Polls? Which Will Predict the 2024 Presidential Election?

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Will the Polls or Betting Odds Get It Right?

Predicting the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election has gotten complicated over the last few election cycles. New polling data drops every hour. Presidential betting odds shift on a dime. Cottage election prognosticators make astounding election predictions. Pundits push their bottom line. Who will get their 2024 presidential election prediction right? 

Latest 2024 Presidential Election Polls

Kamala Harris has managed to hold a slight edge over Trump in the national polling averages ever since she jumped into the race in late July. She got off to a hot start, gaining nearly four percentage points in the polls by the end of August.

September and early October were pretty calm waters, with the polls holding steady. But as Election Day approaches, it’s become a different story—things have tightened, and the race is now neck-and-neck.

Now, don’t get too hung up on the national polls—they’re useful for gauging overall popularity, sure, but they don’t decide who takes the Oval Office. The US election system runs on the Electoral College, not the popular vote. Each state gets a certain number of electoral votes based on its population, and there are 538 total up for grabs. To win, a candidate needs at least 270.

While there are 50 states, most have well-established party loyalties. In reality, just a handful of swing states—also known as battlegrounds—hold the real power. These are the unpredictable territories where both candidates stand a fighting chance, and that’s exactly where the election will be won or lost. If you’re thinking about betting on the outcome, focus on these states, as that’s where the stakes—and the odds—are highest.

As of the time of writing, FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker shows Harris leading the national polls with a 1.4% advantage over Trump. That is a monumental shift from last week, where she was leading with a 1.8-point margin. But is there enough time for Trump to close the gap and take the lead on the national stage?

Latest 2024 Presidential Betting Odds

The presidential betting odds heavily favored Trump when Harris first entered the race after Joe Biden’s sudden withdrawal. However, within weeks Harris was able to take the lead over Trump to win the election. By mid-August, a Harris victory held a 55.56% probability, while a Trump win had a 51.22% chance.

But then something unexpected happened. The betting markets began trending towards Trump just after the vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz. Less than a week after that debate, Elon Musk boosted a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that promoted Trump and his 3% edge over Harris in the betting odds. A day later, Musk joined Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, adding his tech bro energy to the Trump campaign. And the internet took over. Several large multi-million bets backing Trump hit the betting markets further boosting the former president’s betting odds across every betting company taking bets on the upcoming election.

At the time of writing Trump is favored to win the election at -210 moneyline odds which gives him a 67.74% probability of winning. Harris is currently listed at +175 odds to win or a 36.36% chance to win the election.

Presidential Betting Odds or Election Polls?

When it comes to presidential election predictions, both polls and betting odds get some things right and other things wrong. But which one’s got the edge? It’s not as clear-cut as you might think.

Polls give you a snapshot of how folks across the country feel about the candidates—right now. They offer a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment and help us understand who’s winning the popularity contest. They’re great for capturing trends over time and gauging which candidate’s message is resonating. However, polls come with some baggage. For one, they depend on who picks up the phone—or these days, who clicks the survey link. And, as history has shown us, polls can be way off when it comes to predicting the actual result, especially if certain groups of voters are less likely to participate.

Presidential betting odds are not just based on opinions; they’re driven by where people are actually putting their money. In other words, betting odds reflect collective wisdom—and the wallets of bettors—on who they think will win. That makes odds a unique measure of confidence, not just popularity. Odds also react faster to breaking news, major gaffes, or a surprise rally, adjusting almost in real-time. They can be a better pulse check on how the race is shaping up day by day.

Neither election betting odds nor presidential polls are going to give us a perfect election prediction, but together, they provide a more complete picture of the 2024 presidential election landscape.