2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Trump vs Kamala

Election Day is on November 5th, 2024, and the majority of the American electorate will make their choice for the 47th President of the United States of America. For the Democrats, the choice is sitting Vice-President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Representing the Republicans are former president Donald Trump and Ohio Senator J.D. Vance.

2024 Presidential Election Predictions Based on the Latest Polls

The BetUS 10-day poll tracking average shows VP Harris maintaining the same single-point advantage over her Republican rival as she had a week earlier, 47% to 46%. Surveys from potential voters in the seven swing states where the election will be decided don’t clear up the picture. Trump has a two-point lead in North Carolina and a one-point lead in Arizona, while Harris leads by a single point in Michigan and by less than 1% in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada.

Trump recently had a surge in 2024 election polling points but he seemed to peak last week. After crunching nationwide and state-level polling data, his odds of winning the presidency are down from 53% to 51% against 49% for Harris heading into this week.

2024 Presidential Election Predictions Based on Updated Betting Odds

For everyone hoping to see a drop in the presidential betting odds for Trump heading into the final week before Election Day, then you may want to get your bets in now. The odds remain unchanged after a weekend full of big-time campaign events that included a Harris endorsement by Beyonce, a Joe Rogan interview, and a monster Madison Square Garden Trump rally in New York City.

.@Beyonce’s full remarks in support of Vice President Harris pic.twitter.com/CPCaFKkO9o

— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) October 26, 2024

Trump’s current moneyline odds to win the November 5th election are at -185, which translates to a 64.91% probability of a second Trump term. An upset Harris victory is listed at +160 moneyline odds which equates to a 38.46% chance.

How Accurate Are Betting Odds When Predicting the Presidential Election?

Since 1866, the presidential betting favorite has only lost the national election twice. The most recent of which came in 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered Election Night as a heavy favorite with odds of -323. But Donald Trump pulled off the unexpected win, making it one of only two times the underdog claimed victory. The first major upset dates back to 1948, when Harry Truman stunned the political world by overcoming 8-to-1 odds to beat Thomas Dewey.

.@JoeRogan‘s interview with @realDonaldTrump was a tour de force. His breadth and granular working knowledge on a range of random topics will surprise much of the nation. He spoke with specifics, conviction, and passion about California irrigation, nuclear power, North Korea,… pic.twitter.com/ni7jedBTGu

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) October 26, 2024

Why Do Polls And Betting Odds Predict A Different Outcome In The Election?

Polls are tighter than the latest presidential betting odds posted, and there’s a good reason for that. Unlike polls, where each voter counts as one vote, betting markets can be affected by high-stakes bets. For instance, if one bettor bets $10,000 on Trump and 100 bettors wager $10 each on Harris, the dollar value of those bets favor Trump 10000 to 1000, while the volume of those bets favor Harris 100 to 1. Sportsbooks only adjust the betting odds based on the dollar value of those bets and NOT the number of individual bets.

Final Thoughts

Election polls are not a predictor of the outcome. They are a mere snapshot of what the voting electorate is thinking at that moment in time. Presidential betting odds tell us who bettors believe will win the election, no matter if the bettor is actually voting or not. In order to properly predict the presidential election, both the polls and betting odds need to be taken into account.