New York Yankees
Kansas City Royals
San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets
Trump Now -200 Betting Favorite Over Harris to Win Election
With a week to go before Election Day on November 5th, the U.S. Presidential betting odds are on the move, with Donald Trump now a -200 moneyline favorite which gives him a 66.67% probability to regain the White House. Kamala Harris’ odds to win the election are at -170 or 37.04%.
Despite the presidential odds radically shifting to favor Trump, recent polls, including the one from ABC News/Ipsos, tell a different story where Harris maintains a slight edge or a tie in certain battleground states. Election experts note that voter turnout will be key, as Harris gains two percentage points when polling likely voters (51-47) versus registered voters (49-47).
Presidential Betting Odds Radically Shift to Favor Trump
At the beginning of October, Kamala Harris was the U.S. Presidential betting odds favorite at -120 or 54.55%, while Trump was the betting underdog at -110 moneyline odds or 52.38%. The Reuters/Ipsos polling data at that time also backed the betting odds, with Harris leading Trump 47% to 40%. So how have the odds shifted so radically for Trump while the polls show a close race?
The Answer Is Sports Betting Economics.
How many times have you seen a game end on the same number as predicted by the oddsmakers?
Sports betting odds are designed by oddsmakers to appeal to both sides, so bettors back both sides equally. No sportsbook wants to be heavy on one side, and when the game is over, they are left holding the bag. 50-50 action on every event is the goal. Then, when the event is decided, half of the wagers win, and half of the wagers lose, leaving the betting company with the vigorish, which is the 10% fee charged for booking the bet.
Oddsmakers do not need to predict the final outcome of the events they take bets on. They need to predict bettor behavior and set the odds at a price at which both sides will receive an equal amount of action.
So what happens when a high-roller comes out of nowhere and places an extremely large wager on one side? The sportsbook will counter by shifting the odds to make the opposing side more favorable in the eyes of prospective bettors. The goal? To get the books balanced by having an equal amount wagered on either side.
Presidential Betting Trends
The presidential betting odds have successfully predicted every U.S. president except for in 1948 when Harry Truman defied eight-to-one odds to defeat Republican New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey and in 2016 when Hillary Clinton, who had odds of -320 or a 76.19% probability of victory, lost to Trump.
What’s Next?
The train has left the station. If you are going to bet on Trump, the odds will not get any better for you. They will continue to shift in his favor leaving election experts wondering what presidential betting odds mean for the future of democracy. While betting markets are not definitive predictors, they often reflect trends in voter sentiment and campaign momentum.
Republicans and Trump’s supporters view the shifts in the 2024 presidential betting odds as a sign of growing support, while election and betting experts see an unpredictable end to another election cycle.
