Trump vs Harris: Who Will Win More Swing States?
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election inches closer, the nation’s focus zeroes in on one critical question: Which candidate will capture more swing states?
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are locked in a political tug-of-war, especially in the battleground states that could swing the election either way. Election betting odds hint at a tight contest, especially in critical states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These are the states where every vote—and every dollar wagered—could make all the difference.
Trump vs. Harris: Who Will Win More Swing States?
Now let’s take a closer look at the Trump vs Harris odds in these seven swing states, breaking down implied probabilities and giving you insights to make informed bets on who will carry the swing states come election day.
Understanding Swing States and Why They Matter
Most states have strong party loyalties, sticking reliably to red or blue. From 2000 to 2016, a solid 38 states voted for the same party every single time, which leaves a handful of critical states to pick the winner. These swing states—known as battlegrounds, toss-ups, or purple states—are unpredictable and can “swing” to either party depending on the political winds of any given election.
In presidential races, swing states carry an enormous amount of clout. Since 1992, 30 states have flipped party preference at least once, and 26 have been decided by razor-thin margins of under three points at least once. This year, the spotlight is on seven swing states: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Michigan. With their unique demographics and political complexities, predicting how these states will break is a fool’s errand.
Latest 2024 Presidential Election Odds
Before diving into individual swing states, let’s take a look at the broader presidential betting election odds.
- Kamala Harris: +165
- Donald Trump: -195
In betting terms, Harris’s +165 odds imply a 37.7% chance of winning, whereas Trump’s -195 odds translate to a 65.8% probability. These numbers suggest that while Trump is the betting favorite, the election is by no means decided—particularly in the battleground states.
Swing State Odds Breakdown: Kamala Harris
The election betting markets give Harris some interesting odds for winning specific numbers of swing states:
- Zero Swing States: +2500 (3.85%)
- One: +600 (14.29%)
- Two: +200 (33.33%)
- Three: +165 (37.74%)
- Four: +250 (28.57%)
- Five: +800 (11.11%)
- Six or More: +3100 (3.12%)
Swing State Odds Breakdown: Donald Trump
On the other side, Trump’s odds reflect his status as the frontrunner, though the markets acknowledge that his path to winning all swing states isn’t a slam dunk:
- Zero Swing States: +3100 (3.12%)
- One: +3100 (3.12%)
- Two: +800 (11.11%)
- Three: +250 (28.57%)
- Four: +165 (37.74%)
- Five: +200 (33.33%)
- Six: +600 (14.29%)
- Seven: +2500 (3.85%)
Polls show it’s still a close race in the swing states https://t.co/oTMOnRCi1E
— POLITICO (@politico) October 31, 2024
Swing State Spotlight: Key States and Their Significance
Each swing state tells a unique story. Let’s explore how Harris and Trump stack up in some of the most crucial battleground states, the number of electoral votes at stake, and the betting odds and probability of each candidate to win the state.
Arizona – 11 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump -350 (77.78%)
Kamala Harris +225 (30.77%)
In recent elections, Arizona has become a genuine battleground, shifting from a red stronghold to a highly contested state. With its growing population and increasingly diverse electorate, both candidates must focus on local issues here to resonate with voters. The Trump vs. Harris odds favor Trump slightly, but Harris’s appeal to younger, urban voters in Phoenix and Tucson could make Arizona a nail-biter.
Georgia – 16 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump -300 (75.0%)
Kamala Harris +200 (33.33%)
Once a reliable red state, Georgia flipped blue in 2020, a historic turn that has put it firmly on the radar as a swing state in 2024. Both candidates need to energize voters here, with Harris likely appealing to Atlanta’s growing urban and suburban population while Trump aims to shore up support in rural areas.
Michigan – 15 Electoral Votes
Kamala Harris -125 (55.56%)
Donald Trump -115 (53.49%)
Michigan is a classic swing state that has been pivotal in past elections. Historically known for its working-class roots and union-heavy influence, Michigan represents a state where Harris’s appeal to urban voters in Detroit will clash with Trump’s strong rural support. Presidential odds suggest a close race here, with both candidates’ ground games likely being the deciding factor.
Nevada – 6 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump -200 (66.67%)
Kamala Harris +150 (40.0%)
Nevada’s growing Latino population and transient urban centers make it one of the most unpredictable states in this election. Harris’ campaign may resonate here, given her support among minority groups, while Trump’s team will likely focus on turning out rural voters and gambling on the odds (pun intended).
North Carolina – 16 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump -300 (75.0%)
Kamala Harris +200 (33.33%)
North Carolina has a unique blend of Southern conservatism and progressive urban areas that keep it firmly in play. Trump will need to leverage his base in rural counties, while Harris’s campaign will focus on winning over college-educated voters in Charlotte and Raleigh.
Pennsylvania – 19 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump -175 (75.0%)
Kamala Harris +200 (33.33%)
Pennsylvania has played a starring role in recent elections, serving as a swing state that can often decide the outcome. Trump’s ability to appeal to blue-collar voters in regions like Scranton will be crucial, especially after an unforced error by the campaign at Trump’s MSG rally. At the same time, Harris will likely look to galvanize urban areas and suburban voters disillusioned with Trump’s policies.
Wisconsin – 10 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump -150 (60.0%)
Kamala Harris +110 (47.62%)
In recent elections, Wisconsin has swung between parties and remains one of the most critical battlegrounds. The state’s mix of urban centers, rural communities, and progressive university towns makes it a proper wild card. Both campaigns are expected to flood the state with ads and rallies, reflecting just how valuable Wisconsin’s electoral votes are.
Trump vs Harris Implied Odds and Betting Strategies
To convert odds into implied probabilities, use the following calculations:
- Kamala Harris at +165:
- Implied Probability = (100 / (165 + 100)) * 100 = 37.7%
- Donald Trump at -195:
- Implied Probability = (195 / (195 + 100)) * 100 = 65.8%
These implied odds give a snapshot of how the presidential betting odds markets view the election, but remember, swing state dynamics can change in a heartbeat. Smart bettors might hedge by wagering on individual states rather than the entire election outcome.
2024 Election Betting Strategy: Look at Multiple Outcomes
Consider the following strategies when you are thinking about betting on presidential odds in 2024:
- Low-Risk Play: Betting on Trump to win more swing states (like five or six) is a low-risk, low-reward bet, given his implied odds advantage.
- High-Risk, High-Reward: For those looking for a big payout, betting on Harris to capture five or more swing states could be worthwhile, given her appeal in urban areas and among key demographic groups.
Why Swing State Outcomes Matter for the Popular Vote
Historically, swing states don’t always align with the popular vote, but this year could be an exception. With Harris leading slightly in the national polls, her best path to victory includes a strong showing in the swing states and a solid performance among key demographic groups like young voters and minorities.
On the other hand, Trump’s path is more concentrated in swing states—making each state critical to his re-election bid. His supporters in rural and exurban areas will likely drive his numbers, but he must reach beyond his base to secure a decisive swing state win.
The Final Takeaway
While election betting odds in the swing states tip toward Trump, new polls are giving Harris a surprising edge in the Upper Midwest and Nevada. Meanwhile, Trump holds a firm lead in the Southeast and Arizona, turning Pennsylvania into the ultimate battleground—a true tossup with everything on the line.
Expect both campaigns to blanket every swing state with rallies, ads, door-knocking, and phone calls in hopes of shoring up the final bit of support to push them over the finish line.
Bet on the 2024 Presidential Election Odds
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
