Trump vs Kamala Showdown: Which States Will Have the Highest Voter Turnout?

Trump vs. Kamala 2024: Which States Are Favored for Highest and Lowest Voter Turnout?

The US Election voter turnout odds are an important focus for both campaigns and political bettors this election cycle. The odds for states with the highest and lowest turnouts provide a fascinating insight into the presidential betting odds. Before we break down the voter turnout odds, let’s take a closer look at the presidential betting odds:

Trump vs. Harris Presidential Betting Odds

Here’s how the odds stack up:

• Kamala Harris is listed at +155, translating to a 39.22% implied probability.
• Donald Trump is the favorite at -185, translating to a 64.91% implied probability.

The Trump campaign has positioned itself as the front-runner, with J.D. Vance adding an Ohioan edge. Meanwhile, Harris’ choice of Tim Walz, a Midwesterner with a folksy Minnesota appeal, aims to mobilize a broader voter base in swing states and the upper Midwest. But make no mistake, this is more than just a duel between candidates; it’s a contest to sway hearts and minds and maximize turnout percentages.

Odds for the Highest Voter Turnout

Data from the last few presidential elections suggests that a handful of states have a far higher percentage of voter turnout than the national average in each election year. For example, in 2020, approximately 79.21% of voting-eligible Minnesotans turned up to vote, followed by Colorado with 76.69%, Oregon and Washington with 75.33% each, and Wisconsin with 75.04%. Now let’s break down the top voter turnout contenders for 2024:

Minnesota: Odds at -125

As the clear front-runner, Minnesota’s odds of -125 to lead the nation in voter turnout suggest a 55.6% implied probability that voters in the Land of 10,000 Lakes are the most likely to flock to the polls. Known for its historically high turnout, Minnesota’s electorate has consistently been motivated by a blend of civic duty and spirited political competition. With Tim Walz in the vice-presidential slot, expect Minnesota’s DFL (Democratic-Farmer-Labor) base to be energized.

As for why Minnesota is tops, experts believe it’s because the state allows for same-day registration up to Election Day and often has close races for state leadership that result in high rates of engagement.

On average, about two-thirds of students on college campuses get out and vote during every presidential election cycle. But one college in Minnesota blows the rest out of the water. https://t.co/V6IRxLK5oS

— NBC News (@NBCNews) October 17, 2024

Wisconsin: Odds at +500

Wisconsin’s swing state status keeps it in the high-turnout conversation. While its odds imply only a 16.7% chance of leading the pack, Wisconsin is one of a small number of battleground states where the race between Harris and Trump could go either way. With the Trump campaign hoping to reignite his Rust Belt strategy and Harris aiming to galvanize Democratic voters, expect turnout to be impressive—if not the highest.

More than 97,000 people in Wisconsin cast absentee ballots in person on the first day they could. https://t.co/PpUIJTd2kw

— WMTV 15 News (@wmtv15news) October 24, 2024

Colorado, New Hampshire, Oregon: Odds Range from +600 to +800

Colorado’s open-minded electorate, New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary pedigree, and Oregon’s mail-in voting all favor strong turnout. Their odds, though longer than Wisconsin’s, still indicate strong participation potential.

Odds For Highest Turnout in the 2024 Presidential Election:

• Minnesota -125 (55.6%)
• Wisconsin +500 (16.7%)
• Colorado +600 (14.3%)
• New Hampshire +800 (11.1%)
• Oregon +800 (11.1%)
• Maine +1200 (7.7%)
• Washington +1200 (7.7%)
• Michigan +1400 (6.7%)
• Florida +2000 (4.8%)
• Pennsylvania +2500 (3.8%)
• Iowa +2500 (3.8%)
• Virginia +3000 (3.2%)
• Vermont +3500 (2.8%)
• Massachusetts +3500 (2.8%)
• Georgia +4000 (2.4%)
• North Carolina +4000 (2.4%)
• New Jersey +5000 (2.0%)
• Montana +6000 (1.6%)
• Arizona +4000 (2.4%)
• Nebraska +8000 (1.2%)
• Connecticut +8000 (1.2%)
• Delaware +10000 (1.0%)
• Maryland +10000 (1.0%)
• California +12500 (0.8%)
• Nevada +15000 (0.7%)
• Ohio +20000 (0.5%)
• Alaska +25000 (0.4%)
• Kansas +25000 (0.4%)
• Utah +25000 (0.4%)

Swing State Turnout: Betting on the Battle Zones

Now, let’s zero in on the seven swing states that could make or break this election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The Harris campaign is counting on a high turnout in the battleground states, and early voting points to that happening. Trump is banking on Election Day voters to turn out for the former president.

Arizona: Odds for Highest Turnout at +4000

Arizona has emerged as a true battleground. With odds at +4000 for the highest turnout (2.4% implied), it’s a long shot for top turnout but crucial in the overall election calculus. Latinos and younger voters represent key demographics, and Harris will be counting on the state’s rapidly changing voter base.

Georgia: Odds for Highest Turnout at +4000

Georgia’s odds mirror Arizona’s, with a 2.4% chance of leading voter turnout. With its pivotal role in 2020, the Peach State remains a wild card four years later. Trump’s team aims to maximize turnout among suburban and rural voters, while Harris hopes to replicate Biden’s Democratic coalition that flipped Georgia in the last election.

“The fact that voters turn out doesn’t mean there’s no voter suppression.” Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), who has criticized some of Georgia’s new voting laws, says about the state’s high turnout for early voting.

“It just means that people aren’t willing to have their voices… pic.twitter.com/ENWu2qMdhq

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) October 20, 2024

Michigan: Odds for Highest Turnout at +1400

With a 6.7% implied chance, Michigan remains a must-win for both campaigns. Known for its large labor vote and a diverse electorate, Michigan’s turnout could prove decisive. It’s worth noting that Michigan’s odds are among the shortest of the swing states, signaling it as a possible standout.

Pennsylvania: Odds for Highest Turnout at +2500

The Keystone State has a 3.8% implied chance of leading turnout. With its storied status as a swing state, Pennsylvania is always a turnout battlefield. Expect both parties to pour resources into this state, with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh’s turnout efforts being pivotal to Harris and Trump doubling down on central and western Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania 🚂
Mail and absentee voting update
Total: 1,208,063 (+84,554 since Oct 23)

🔵 Democratic 60.1% | 726,619 votes (+41,895)
🔴 Republican 29.8% | 360,527 votes (+32,453)
⚪️ Other 10.1% | 120,917 votes (+10,206) pic.twitter.com/Func29u3Ri

— VoteHub (@VoteHubUS) October 24, 2024

Nevada: Odds for Highest Turnout at +15000

Despite being a swing state, Nevada’s odds for the highest turnout are quite long at +15000, with just a 0.7% implied chance. Its unique political landscape, with a mix of service industry workers, entertainers, retirees, and casino workers, makes turnout efforts challenging.

North Carolina: Odds for Highest Turnout at +4000

North Carolina has a 2.4% implied chance for the highest turnout, matching Arizona and Georgia. As one of the most populous swing states, North Carolina’s turnout efforts will focus heavily on both urban centers like Charlotte and Raleigh and rural communities.

Wisconsin: Revisiting Odds for Highest Turnout

As mentioned, Wisconsin’s odds of +500 put it among the more likely swing states to lead in turnout, and so far, early voter turnout hasn’t disappointed. Early in-person balloting overwhelmed the statewide voter registration system, creating crashes and delays for enthusiastic voters in the swing state. The Badger State’s turnout may well reflect broader voter sentiment across the Midwest.

WISCONSIN @QuinnipiacPoll:

Harris 48%
Trump 48%
.
Harris 48%
Trump 48%
Stein 0%
Oliver 0%
West 0%
Terry 0%
De la Cruz 0%

1,108 LV, 10/17-21https://t.co/0E0jGs1eZD

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 23, 2024

Odds for the Lowest Voter Turnout

The odds for the lowest turnout present an entirely different dynamic. Here, Hawaii, usually a progressive blue state, is favored to have the lowest voter turnout in the nation with odds of +125, translating to a 44.4% implied chance. The remaining states on the lowest voter turnout list are all red states plus New York.

Hawaii: Odds at +125

The Aloha State has often struggled with voter turnout in federal elections. The 2022 general election saw a very low turnout at only 41%. Despite a high interest in Democratic politics, Hawaii’s geographical distance, time zone differences, a lack of marquee races, and few candidates to choose from contribute to low voter turnout.

While the number of registered voters in Hawaii has increased in recent years, the state hasn’t seen a population increase, and more people are moving out of the state than moving here. The state has simply gotten better at registering voters. Now will they turn out for the November 5th election?

West Virginia: Odds at +250

West Virginia’s odds suggest a 28.6% chance of having the lowest turnout. With a declining population, economic struggles, transportation barriers, and political party apathy West Virginia often struggles to motivate voters, making it a prime candidate for lower turnout.

Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee: Odds Range from +350 to +1600

These states are typically low-turnout territories, given the fact that Democrats have a snowball’s chance in hell of flipping these reddest of red states.

Odds for the Lowest Turnout in the 2024 Presidential Election:

• Hawaii +125 (44.4%)
• West Virginia +250 (28.6%)
• Oklahoma +350 (22.2%)
• Arkansas +400 (20.0%)
• Tennessee +1600 (5.9%)
• Texas +2800 (3.4%)
• New York +3000 (3.2%)
• New Mexico +3300 (2.9%)
• Alabama +3500 (2.8%)
• Mississippi +3500 (2.8%)
• Any Other State +900 (10.0%)

The Biggest States = Biggest Voter Turnouts?

When discussing 2024 election betting, it’s crucial to consider states like California, Texas, Florida, and New York. These are the heavyweights in terms of population, and their turnout numbers significantly influence the national totals.

California: Odds for Highest Turnout at +12500

California, despite its large voter base, has a slim 0.8% chance of leading turnout. Even being the bluest of blue states, why is voter turnout so low election after election? Being the bluest of blue states is exactly the reason why. No one is going to take a day off of work or hire a babysitter to stand in line to vote when the results are a foregone conclusion.

Texas: Odds for Lowest Turnout at +2800

Texas has a 3.4% chance of being the lowest turnout state, even with its status as an up-and-coming battleground state. While enthusiasm among Latino voters and suburban growth has boosted numbers, Texas still struggles to engage its entire electorate. However, this year, more is on the line than just who will be the next president. Reproductive rights and cringe-worthy Senator Ted Cruz are both on the ballot.

Making Sense of the Voter Turnout Odds: Hope and Aspiration

Voter turnout odds for the upcoming presidential election are more than just numbers on a screen. They are an insight into how engaged and excited the electorate is in each state. However, sadly, the only states where voter turnout will affect the outcome of the presidential election are the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. So whether you’re betting on Kamala, Trump, or a swing state surprise, remember that the stronger the voter turnout, the stronger democracy is.