Trump vs Harris: Popular Vote Betting Odds for 2024 Election

· Oct 28 - 6 minutes read

We look at odds for the popular vote between the Republican and Democratic Parties.
The Democratic Party is the -240 favorite to win the popular vote.
We have an update on the latest Harris vs Trump betting odds.

Popular vote betting odds are available for the 2024 US Presidential Election, where the Democratic Party is favored to win at -240.

Trump vs Harris: Popular Vote Betting Odds for 2024 Election — Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images/AFP

The popular vote is different to picking who wins the election, with every vote counting. That’s why the Democrats are favored to win, having won the popular vote in 2020 by a sizable margin.

We look at everything you need to know about betting on the popular vote.

2024 Election Popular Vote Betting Guide

Betting Odds for the 2024 Popular Vote

Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party are firm -240 favorites to win the popular vote and follow in the footsteps of Joe Biden.

Biden had roughly a 51%-46% win over Trump in 2020, and although Harris isn’t expected to win the election according to the odds, her party is still expected to have more overall votes.

US Presidential odds have Harris as the underdog at +160, but betting on the popular vote is completely different. The Democratic Party is always tough to beat with the popular vote, so bettors should be confident when placing bets on the Democrats.

The Republican Party is a +160 underdog after receiving around 8 million less votes in 2020. When Trump won the 2016 election, he was just under three million votes behind Hillary Clinton, so he’s not expected to win the popular vote.

Overall Presidential odds tell a different story with Trump paying -185 to win. He was +120 just two weeks ago, but there have been big moves for the former President to serve a second term.

Popular vote betting odds also have any other party at +9000 to win. However, the likelihood of that happening is extremely slim, so betting on the Democratic Party to win the popular vote is our best election betting strategy.

Join BetUS and bet now! Get a $450 Politics Bonus Available for $200 Bets on your first time deposit!

How Have the Popular Vote Odds Shifted?

There hasn’t been as much betting movement with popular vote odds compared to Next US President odds with our BetUS sportsbook.

Money has come for Trump with popular vote odds, but it’s only marginal. Despite his election odds firming considerably over the last few weeks, it hasn’t changed the popular vote market much.

The Democratic Party and Harris remain firm favorites at -240, and bettors should be confident. It’s rare to see the Democrats lose the popular vote. However, there haven’t been many election winners that lose the popular vote.

Trump won the election in 2016 but lost the popular vote to Clinton. George W. Bush won the 2000 election but lost the popular vote to Al Gore. There have been only five election winners to lose the popular vote, which doesn’t bode well for Trump.

He will have to defy the online betting odds once again to win, but having already done it in 2016 proves he can do it again.

As the odds suggest, despite money coming for Trump to win the election, he’s not expected to win the popular vote at +160. It could be a bridge too far, especially in an election which is awfully close in the polls.

Best Betting Strategies for the Popular Vote

The Democratic Party has won seven of the last eight popular votes, with the likes of Biden, Barack Obama, Gore and Bill Clinton winning.

Bush in 2004 was the only recent Republican popular vote winner with a 3,012,166 advantage over Democratic nominee John Kerry, so it’s rare to see a Republican Party win in recent times.

Therefore, our best betting strategy in Presidential odds predictions is to back the Democratic Party at -240. No matter what your preference for President, it’s best to back Harris and her party to win the popular vote. History is on her side, and we can’t see Trump coming close to winning the popular vote in 2024.

Popular vote betting odds have a value price for Democrats at -240. We would have priced them around -280-300, so it’s well worth including in politics parlays for the upcoming election.

There is also popular vote betting for different states and counties. There are over 100 markets available with popular betting odds, and the odds can differ considerably.

For example: Republicans are -20000 to win the popular vote in Oklahoma, and the Democrats are -5000 to win in Oregon. The swing states are much closer, so there is great value for bettors to enjoy with popular vote betting.

How Does Popular Vote Differ from Electoral College Betting?

The popular vote and the Electoral College represent two distinct elements of the US presidential election process, each with its own role in determining the outcome. The popular vote reflects the total number of individual votes nationwide.

The popular vote provides insight into the candidate with the most widespread public support across the country. However, this vote alone does not determine the President.

The Electoral College, on the other hand, is a formal body that ultimately decides the president. Each state has a designated number of electors based on its representation in Congress, which includes both its Senators and House members.

Altogether, there are 538 electors, and a candidate needs a majority of at least 270 electoral votes to win. In nearly all states, the candidate who wins the popular vote within that state receives all of its electoral votes, an approach known as “winner-takes-all.” The only exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, which allocate their electoral votes proportionally.

Betting on the popular vote differs from electoral college betting, and there are some interesting markets available. The electoral college winner is at even-money odds to lose the popular vote. Bettors get -140 in US Presidential lines for the electoral college winner to win the popular vote.

Bet on the Popular Vote Now!